\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Core view
The sales volume of the company fell by 18.2% year-on-year in November. Among them, the sales volume of Harvard brand was 70200, down 25.66% year-on-year and 25.60% month on month. The sales volume of wey brand was 5098, down 15.03% year-on-year and 49.35% month on month. The sales volume of Great Wall pickup trucks was 12900, down 42.23% year-on-year and 48.63% month on month. The sales volume of Euler brand was 13200, with a year-on-year increase of 28.94% and a month on month decrease of 36.78%. The sales volume of tank brand was 10400, with a year-on-year increase of 72.20% and a month on month decrease of 13.34%.
Lack of core + Spring Festival holiday factors disturb short-term sales: the main factor of the company's year-on-year decline in sales in January is the shortage of chips. It is expected that q2-q3 chips are expected to achieve a balance between supply and demand. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday also affected sales in January. This year's Spring Festival is the end of January. Due to Festival factors, the company did not have full production in January, while last year's Spring Festival was the first ten days of February, which did not affect the production and sales in January. In 2022, Euler, wey and tank brands will be the new year of products. Harvard and pickup truck will also continue to maintain their leading positions in the market segments. Higher sales will better amortize costs and expenses and improve the profitability of the company.
The handover of the Brazilian factory has been completed and the process of globalization has accelerated: on January 27, the company officially took over the Brazilian ilase mapolis factory, which is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023 with an annual production capacity of 100000 vehicles, which will radiate the whole Latin American region in the future. The company released its core market strategy in Brazil and plans to launch 10 new electric products within three years, including 4 pure electric and 6 hybrid models. The first product will be launched in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Investment suggestion: the company's strong product cycle has come. China's multi brand covers the high, medium and low-end markets of fuel and electric. In 2022, with the alleviation of chip shortage, the company will release greater performance flexibility. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.73 yuan, 1.11 yuan and 1.43 yuan respectively. The corresponding PE was 51.9, 34.2 and 26.6 respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: the sales of new products are not as expected; The development progress of overseas market is less than expected.
