\u3000\u3000 Eastroc Beverage (Group) Co.Ltd(605499) (605499)
Events
On the evening of February 15, 2022, the company released the performance express: the revenue in 2021 was 6.978 billion yuan, an increase of 40.72% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.193 billion yuan, an increase of 46.90% at the same time; Deduct RMB 1.084 billion, an increase of 34.71% at the same time.
The performance met expectations and the net interest rate increased steadily
According to the performance express, we expect the net interest rate of the company to be 17.1% (+ 0.7pct) in 2021, deducting the non net interest rate of 15.5% (- 0.7pct). Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 is 1.418 billion yuan (+ 55%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company is 197 million yuan (+ 82%); Deduct RMB 119 million (+ 13%); 2021q4 net interest rate is 13.9% (+ 2.1pct), deducting non net interest rate of 8.4% (- 3.1pct). According to the latest published data, the net profit attributable to the parent company basically falls within the central range of performance forecast, and the performance is in line with expectations, mainly for the following reasons: 1) the company continues to optimize the product structure and customer structure, actively strengthens the development of traditional channels in the national market, and further improves the overall market rate and coverage of products; 2) The company actively creates "energy +" product line to meet the needs of different scenes and people, and continuously introduces products to meet differentiated needs, which are promoted through Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) multi-dimensional.
New products enrich the product matrix, and channels sink and expand at the same time
The company launched a new product Dongpeng Jiaxi in June 2020 and conducted trial sales in Guangzhou, Foshan and other regions; In April 2021, the new 0 sugar special drink was launched for trial sale in Guangzhou, Zhongshan and other regions, and comprehensively promoted in Guangdong, Guangxi and online channels from June 2021. On December 10, 2021, the company launched "she can", targeting female target groups. The company continues to promote new products and put forward the concept of "energy +" to enrich the family matrix of energy drinks.
Channel sinking and expansion go hand in hand. From the perspective of Guangdong Province: 1) the development of regional markets is unbalanced, and the sales contribution of the Pearl River Delta will be greater than that of Western and northern Guangdong; 2) In 2022, a catering area will be set up in Guangdong to open up catering channels. In addition to promoting Dongpeng special drink, it will also promote non energy drinks such as orange lemon tea, Chenpi special drink and water; 3) Guangdong is also increasing the penetration of products and the progress of channel sinking, focusing on improving channel coverage and coverage quality. Actively attract investment outside the province, establish an appropriate personnel structure and build a relatively perfect sales system. Effective terminal network development is an important assessment index for the company's salesperson.
In terms of regional expansion, the company divides the country into four echelons: Guangdong is the first echelon mature market, and Guangxi, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang are the second echelon; Fujian, Anhui and Henan are the third echelon, and the Great Northwest and northern regions are the fourth echelon. Four different echelons adopt different strategies for network expansion, channel construction and consumer cultivation.
At present, the company has set up seven production bases in South China, Guangzhou, Dongguan, Haifeng, Nanning, Chongqing and Anhui. In order to optimize the strategic layout of the company, the company has established a Changsha base in Hunan, and Quzhou, Zhejiang, will also be laid out in the future.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the company's new product volume under the energy beverage track and the national expansion path; According to the performance express, we slightly adjusted the EPS from 2021 to 2023 to 3.31/4.70/6.39 yuan (the previous values were 3.32/4.47/5.90 yuan respectively), and the corresponding PE of the current stock price was 49 / 35 / 26 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, epidemic drag on consumption, online expansion is less than expected, new product volume is less than expected, peak season sales are less than expected, industry competition intensifies risks, and the construction progress of raised investment is less than expected.
