\u3000\u3000 Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) (688002)
Uncooled infrared is the leader, with a compound growth rate of 115% and 109% in revenue and profit in the past three years
As the leader of uncooled infrared in China, the company's business covers the whole industrial chain from chips, detectors, movement modules to thermal imagers. In the past three years, the compound growth rate of revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company has reached 115% and 109% respectively, and has maintained a high gross profit margin of more than 60% for a long time. The company has good growth and profitability.
Special field: core supplier of non refrigeration products. Refrigeration products have made breakthroughs and benefited from large-scale production of new models
Benefiting from the continuous promotion of military modernization, the infrared equipment market, including individual soldiers and missile borne equipment, will usher in rapid development. The market scale is expected to reach 11 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound growth rate of 35%. It is estimated that the CAGR of the company's special business revenue is expected to reach 40% in the next three years.
As a core supplier of non refrigeration products, the company has an obvious advantage in the listing of gun aiming and small guided weapons, and will benefit from the batch production of relevant models. In terms of refrigeration products, the company's follow-up research models continue to make breakthroughs. The national production refrigeration movement fx640g has entered the design verification test stage, and the small refrigeration movement fx640s has entered the engineering verification test stage, which is expected to open up a new space for special business.
Civil field: the decline in costs has brought new demands to the industry, and the company's outdoor thermal imager business has expanded smoothly
The cost reduction promotes the continuous expansion of the boundary of civil infrared applications. According to Mordor's prediction, the scale of the global civil infrared market is expected to increase from US $4.6 billion in 2021 to US $6.3 billion in 2026, with a compound growth rate of 7%.
Outdoor thermal imager is a high-end application in the field of civil infrared, and the market is rising rapidly in recent years. At present, the company's products are mainly oriented to the European market, and its sales revenue has doubled for three consecutive years, leading the industry.
Relying on the product power, cost advantages brought by the whole industrial chain and channel expansion, the company's new market in North America is expected to replicate its past success in the European market. Benefiting from the continuous improvement of market share and the rapid growth of the industry, the outdoor thermal imager business is expected to become an important driving force for the company's performance growth.
It is planned to issue 1.6 billion yuan of convertible bonds to raise funds and expand production, and the competitiveness of the company is expected to be further improved
According to the company's announcement on February 13, the company plans to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 1.64 billion yuan for the R & D pilot project of infrared thermal imaging machine and intelligent photoelectric sensor. Through this fund-raising and production expansion, the company's market competitiveness in the infrared and photoelectric fields is expected to be further improved.
Profit forecast and valuation
The rapid volume of new special products and the continuous expansion of civil products market will jointly drive the high growth of the company. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 550 / 850 / 1.23 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 5% / 53% / 46%, CAGR = 28%, corresponding to 53 / 34 / 24 times of PE. Give a "buy" rating. Risk warning: special orders are not as expected; Overseas business expansion is less than expected; Infrared technology path changes.
