\u3000\u3000 Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) (600481)
Key investment points
Event: the company announced the long order sales contract of silicon wafer with Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) and the sales contract of reduction furnace equipment with Gansu Guazhou Baofeng silicon material development Co., Ltd. From 2022 to 2024, the company expects to sell 1.892 billion monocrystalline silicon wafers to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) . The company signed a reduction furnace equipment sales contract with Gansu Guazhou Baofeng silicon material development Co., Ltd., with an amount of 260 million yuan.
Signed a three-year long single silicon wafer sales contract with Trina Solar, and the strength of large-size silicon wafer was certified as a component leader. Since October 2021, the company has successively signed long silicon wafer sales orders for 2022-2024 with Tongwei, aixu and other battery leading enterprises, and successfully entered the list of silicon wafer suppliers of top 5 component enterprises (Atlas). Compared with Tongwei's silicon wafer sales contract, the single sales volume in the three years increased by about 840 million pieces. It is estimated that 1.892 billion pieces of silicon wafer will be sold from 2022 to 2024, and the annual delivery volume will be 392 million pieces, 600 million pieces and 900 million pieces respectively, further verifying that the company's 210 large-size silicon wafers have the leading quality. According to the sales contract announcement announced by the company, we expect that the company's silicon wafer shipment will exceed 12gw in 2022.
Baotou phase II project is planned to start, and the follow-up silicon wafer customers and long orders are worth looking forward to. At present, the company's Baotou phase I 20GW silicon wafer project is nearing completion, and recently announced that it plans to start the phase II 20GW investment and construction plan. The cooperation between the company and downstream battery and component manufacturers continues to expand and deepen, and the customer base continues to expand. The orders on hand are expected to continue to grow in combination with the rhythm of the company's capacity construction.
The expansion of silicon material production exceeded expectations, and the performance of reduction furnace continued to break through in 2022. In 2021, the company signed orders for reduction furnace equipment exceeding 1.7 billion yuan, and some orders will be delivered and revenue recognized in 2022; In 2022, the order for reduction furnace has reached 1.56 billion yuan. Since 2021h2, Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , Xinyi solar energy and other new entrants have announced the total capacity planning of 200000 tons of polysilicon each; At the same time, Daquan, Risen Energy Co.Ltd(300118) and other silicon material enterprises also released the plan to build more than 200000 tons of polycrystalline silicon production expansion in Baotou. Therefore, the silicon material link will continue to expand production from 2022 to 2023, which will directly drive the demand growth of reduction furnace. The sales contract with Gansu Baofeng reduction furnace also confirms the continuous promotion of downstream silicon material production expansion. We believe that the company, as the leader of polysilicon reduction furnace industry, has a market share of more than 50%, and its performance is expected to be better than that in 2021 under the continuous expansion of silicon material production.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: the silicon wafer performance in 2022 will be gradually realized and become a new growth curve. It is expected that the compound growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company in the next three years will be 106.8%, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the downstream silicon material expansion is less than the expected risk; The risk that the company's production capacity construction progress is less than expected; The risk of rising raw material costs and declining profitability of the company; Risk of policy change
