\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event overview: on February 14, 2022, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the production and sales express in January. The company’s automobile output was 111300, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.4% / month on month increase of – 31.7%; The car sales volume was 111800, with a year-on-year increase of – 19.6% / month on month increase of – 31.2%.
Chip supply shortage and Spring Festival holiday factors restrict production capacity, and the company’s sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In January, the output of Haval brand was 69000 vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of – 25.9% / month on month ratio of – 27.6%, and the sales volume was 70200 vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of – 25.7% / month on month ratio of – 25.6%; The output of wey brand was 5200 vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of – 12.3% / month on month ratio of – 50.3%, and the sales volume was 5100 vehicles, with a year-on-year ratio of – 15.0% / month on month ratio of – 49.3%; The output of tank brand was 10700 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.1% / month on month increase of – 6.4%, and the sales volume was 10400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 72.2% / month on month increase of – 13.3%; The output of Great Wall pickup truck was 13300, with a year-on-year ratio of – 40.9% / month on month ratio of – 45.4%, and the sales volume was 12900, with a year-on-year ratio of – 42.2% / month on month ratio of – 48.6%; The output of Euler brand was 13100 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.5% / month on month decrease of – 38.6%, and the sales volume was 13200 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 28.9% / month on month decrease of – 36.8%. Due to factors such as lack of core and holidays, the company’s sales volume is under pressure in the short term. It is expected that the chip will be relieved in the second and third quarters, and the company’s sales volume is expected to rise.
The multi brand strategy has successfully created a hot selling model, and the sales will be worry free in 2022. From the perspective of models of various brands, in January, “national God car” Haval H6 sold 35600 vehicles, ranking first in the sales volume of Chinese SUV models for 9 consecutive years (2013-2021); Huff beast sold 10100 vehicles a month, and sold more than 10000 vehicles in the second month after listing; On January 14, wey brand released a new 0 anxiety intelligent electric category, and the first model Mocha dhtphev was officially launched for pre-sale; 10400 tanks were delivered in January, with sales exceeding 10000 for three consecutive months. The tank 500 released in November (more than 22000 valid orders on the first day of pre-sale at Guangzhou Auto Show) is expected to be officially delivered in March, and strong product strength is expected to drive the tank brand to a new level; The Great Wall cannon sold 10100 vehicles, with a cumulative sales volume of more than 10000 in 19 months, and continued to win the championship in pickup sales; Month on year sales of 3.33 million EULA + 1.4 million. In 2022, Harvey cool dog, tank 500 / 700 / 800, Euler ballet cat / punk cat / lightning cat, King Kong gun, mecha dragon and other products will gradually come on the market, helping the company’s sales continue to rise.
The Brazilian factory was officially handed over and overseas expansion accelerated. In January, the company sold 12800 vehicles overseas, with a year-on-year increase of + 16.2% / month on month increase of – 19.1%, accounting for 11.4% of the company’s total sales, with a year-on-year increase of + 3.5pct/month on month increase of + 1.7pct, accelerating the expansion of the overseas market. On January 24, the company officially took over the Brazilian plant. After digital transformation, it is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023, with a production capacity of 100000 vehicles, radiating Latin America. In addition, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released Brazil’s core market strategy. In the next 10 years, it will invest 10 billion reais (about 11.5 billion yuan) to deepen the layout of the local industrial chain. In the next three years, it will launch 10 100% new energy power products in Brazil, and the first product is planned to be on the market in the fourth quarter of this year. Based on Thailand and radiating ASEAN, the company’s “4 + 4” ASEAN strategy is expected to accelerate the implementation of Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2025 globalization strategy.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.782/11.25/14.459 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 53 / 32 / 25 times of the current share price PE respectively. Optimistic about the company’s electric intelligent development and multi brand strategic development, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
