\u3000\u3000 New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) (002968)
Key elements of the report:
The company is the only third-party property management company focusing on public construction properties in a shares, which is scarce to some extent. The company's strategic development path is clear, with deep binding with core managers, and high performance certainty. With many years of experience in public buildings management, it has formed competitive advantages in aviation, schools and other business fields, and constantly cultivated new profit growth poles to ensure the room for the improvement of the company's performance.
Key investment points:
The company is a rare independent third-party company focusing on public construction property management, deeply cultivating the central city business and accelerating the nationwide business layout: the company is the first batch of independent third-party property enterprises in Chongqing. As of September 30, 2021, the company's business has spread across 24 provinces and cities in China and provided property management services for 76 cities; The proportion of projects under management outside Chongqing increased from 21% in 2016 to 49% by the end of the third quarter of 2021. At present, the company has preliminarily realized the national layout with key central cities as the core and radiating surrounding provinces and cities.
There is a wide space for public buildings and property management, the company's advantageous business forms are developing rapidly, and multi business operations go hand in hand: through the estimation of the market scale of park property, venue property, medical care property and public transportation, we estimate that the market scale of the public buildings and properties deeply cultivated by the company exceeds 800 billion yuan, and there is a broad space for development in the future. Through the extensive layout of major business forms in the field of public construction, the company has continuously incubated advantageous business forms and carried out deep cultivation. At present, the company has formed five business structures, among which the public property business forms a potential growth level of multi-level incubation, so as to ensure the room for the improvement of the company's performance.
The company has built multi-level incentive measures with high certainty of performance growth: the company has built three levels of equity incentive measures to deeply bind the interests of the company's core employees with the company's performance; According to the company's restricted stock incentive plan in 2021, the company's performance assessment objectives require the compound annual growth rate of operating revenue to reach 35.7% and net profit to reach 30.6% from 2021 to 2025. On the other hand, since 2021, the company has gradually explored the partner mechanism of urban company management team, and the gradual implementation of incentive measures in key central cities will help the company improve its market expansion ability in central cities.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: we expect the company's operating revenue from 2021 to 2023 to be 2.090 billion yuan, 2.983 billion yuan and 4.051 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 59%, 43% and 36% respectively, and the scale net profit to be 166 million yuan, 242 million yuan and 328 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 27%, 46% and 35%. The current share price is 37.13 yuan / share (as of February 15, 2022), and the price earnings ratio corresponding to the performance from 2021 to 2023 is 36.40, 24.95 and 18.45 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk factors: the external expansion of the company's projects is less than expected, and the gross profit margin of new projects is less than expected.
