\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Event overview: on February 14, 2022, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) released the production and sales data in January, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) sold 277200 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.0% / month on month increase of + 55.7%.
Independent brand: the inflection point of sales volume is fulfilled, and the performance of new energy is brilliant. In January 2022, the sales volume of Chang’an autonomous (Chongqing Chang’an + Hebei Chang’an + Hefei Chang’an) was 176200, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.8% / month on month increase of + 115.9%; Changan produced 157100 vehicles independently, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.6% / month on month increase of + 56.38%. The sales volume of Changan Chinese brand cars was 226000, a year-on-year increase of + 12.6%; The sales volume of Chinese brand passenger cars in Chang’an was 158600, a year-on-year increase of + 3.4%. In terms of key models, cs75 series / cs55 series / escape series / UNI series contributed 3.36/3.03/2.19/12000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of – 20.4% / + 135.6% / – 7.0% / + 1.5%. Among them, cs55plus sold more than 20000 for four consecutive months, and escape plus won the first independent insurance volume of compact cars in 2021. Changan new energy sold 13600 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 250.1% / month on month increase of + 13.3%. The sales volume of auchankai / Chang’an brand has reached 145100, of which auchankai / Chang’an brand has been listed for 15 months.
Joint venture brand: Chang’an Mazda performs well, and Chang’an Ford ushers in the new year of products. Changan Mazda sold 19900 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of + 67.7% / month on month increase of + 186.9%, of which Mazda3 anksila sold 11400 vehicles a month, a month on month increase of + 31.6%. Changan Ford sold 24900 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year ratio of – 17.5% / month on month ratio of – 32.6%. In terms of new vehicles, EVOS sedan version is expected to be listed at the Beijing auto show. Mondeo, four cylinder fox, explorer, Ruijie and other main models will be upgraded. The strong model cycle is expected to drive the recovery of sales, and the listing of high-end models will enhance the profitability of the company and accelerate the repair of performance.
The strong product cycle has come, and the electric intellectualization has accelerated. 1) Independent and strong product cycle starts, and the replacement of main models ensures strong competitiveness. In terms of new cars, uni Kidd is expected to be launched at the end of February; Uni-v is expected to be launched in 2022q1, and the blue whale hybrid version will be launched in the second half of the year; A158 and c385 based on pure electric EPA platform are expected to be listed in June / July this year, and c673 will be mass produced by the end of this year; Auchan Z6 is expected to be listed in 2022q2. In terms of upgrading, cs75 is expected to be listed at the end of February; Cs95 / Auchan X5 is planned to be listed in 2022h2; Uni-k, cs55plus, cs35plus and Yidong plus are expected to launch modifications in the third quarter to realize rapid iteration of models. 2) The new energy platform is accelerated to enable, and the pace of product landing is accelerated. Huawei + Ningde empowers Chang’an avita to be high-end. It plans to release four new cars in the next five years, and avita 11, the first high-end intelligent pure electric SUV, is expected to be mass produced in 2022q3. Epa0 (micro / small), epa1 (compact) and epa2 (medium and above) independently developed by Chang’an new energy jointly form the SDA platform architecture. It is planned to launch 11 new products in the next three years, so as to achieve the goal of sales exceeding 700000 vehicles in 2025. At the end of January, Chang’an new energy completed round B financing of nearly 5 billion yuan, and plans to invest in five dimensions of new technology / product / Channel / brand / industry to improve brand competitiveness. With the implementation of product planning, the company’s electric intelligence is accelerating, which is expected to drive the brand upward.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 4.562/57.97/6.671 billion respectively, corresponding to 22 / 17 / 15 times of the current share price PE respectively. The competitiveness of the company’s traditional fuel vehicles continues to be strong, and new energy differentiated dual brands + multiple new vehicles are expected to bring performance growth. Maintain a “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials fluctuates, the supply of chips is less than expected, and the recovery of passenger car market is less than expected.
