\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Core view:
The investment event company released the latest production and marketing express. In January 2022, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) produced 247484 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 9.23%; The total sales volume was 277244, with a year-on-year increase of 10.03%. Among them, the sales volume of independent brands was 226016, with a year-on-year increase of 12.59%; The sales volume of independent passenger cars was 158625, with a year-on-year increase of 3.39%.
Our analysis and judgment
(I) the sales of several main models of independent brands are bright. The company sold 226016 self owned brands in January, achieving a double growth of 12.6% year-on-year and 83.3% month on month. A number of main models continued the trend of explosion, among which the escape Series in the car sector exceeded 20000, and the sales of cs75 series and cs55 Series in the SUV sector exceeded 30000, with sales of 33590 / 30316 respectively. In the medium and high-end market, “uni” continued the market performance of more than 10000 monthly sales in 2021. In January, it sold 12047 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% and a month on month increase of 64.0%, and continued to expand its influence in the medium and high-end market.
(II) the intensive launch of new energy models ushered in a new year of model cycle. The company’s new energy pure electric vehicle c385 is expected to be listed in the second quarter, and the sales volume is expected to reach 10000 units per month. Avita’s high-end brand is expected to be listed in the second half of this year, with independent brands operating through independent channels to enrich the new energy product line. According to the company’s plan, the sales volume of Chang’an brand will reach 3 million by 2025, of which new energy accounts for 35%, about 1 million.
(III) the company released the strategic blueprint of “new automobile and new ecology” and laid out new scientific and technological tracks. According to the plan, a total of 150 billion yuan will be invested in the whole industrial chain in the next five years to build the technology ecology of science and technology companies and speed up the construction of software and intelligent capabilities. At the same time, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , which is building a highland for global talents, is actively introducing leading talents, and the proportion of intelligent software talents will reach 50% in 2025.
Investment suggestion: the company’s independent and joint venture brands keep pace with each other, with high performance certainty. We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 4.610/56.51/6.644 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 38.68% / + 22.59% / + 17.56%, corresponding to EPS of 0.60 yuan / 0.74/0.87 yuan and PE of 21 / 17 / 15 times. We maintain its “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1. The shortage of chips has the impact of limited production; 2. The upward pressure on the cost of new energy vehicles driven by the price rise of upstream raw materials; 3. The pressure of macroeconomic slowdown.
