\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the production and sales express in January 2022. The company sold 111778 vehicles in January, a year-on-year increase of - 19.6%. By brand, the sales volume of Harvard brand in January was 70228, a year-on-year increase of - 25.7%; The sales volume of wey brand was 5098, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.0%; The sales volume of Great Wall pickup truck was 12860, with a year-on-year increase of - 42.2%; The sales volume of Euler brand was 13229, with a year-on-year increase of + 28.9%; The sales volume of tank brand was 10363, with a year-on-year increase of + 72.2%.
The short-term pressure on sales is mainly affected by the shortage of chips. The sales volume of the company in January was - 19.6% and - 31.2% year on year and month on month respectively, and the output was - 19.4% and - 31.7% year on year and month on month respectively. We believe that the decline in sales is mainly affected by the shortage of chips, and the company's 4WD models have a high demand for relevant chips.
The main models of the new platform are selling well, and the new car cycle in 2022 will continue. The company's key models under the new platform maintained good terminal demand. In January 2022, the sales volume of Haval big dog was 7826, the sales volume of Haval divine beast was 10085, the sales volume of Euler good cat was 9020, and the sales volume of tank 300 was 10363. We believe that the new models supported by the new platform have strong product power, and the end consumers have high recognition of the company's new products. The listing of new models will further enrich the company's product matrix. At present, among the models that have been determined to be listed in 2022: in terms of Haval brand, Haval cool dog is the second heavyweight model of Haval dog. In terms of Euler brand, the listing of ballet cat, punk cat and lightning cat will further enrich the company's product matrix in the field of pure electricity. In terms of wey brand, mocha dht-phev equipped with lemon hybrid DHT has been put on pre-sale, and dream fulfillment will also be launched within the year.
The proportion of overseas sales has been increasing, and the production capacity layout in Brazil has been implemented. In January, the company sold 12750 vehicles overseas, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, accounting for 11.4%. At present, the company's Brazilian plant has completed the handover and is expected to be put into operation in the second half of 2023, with an annual capacity of 100000 units, which will radiate throughout Latin America in the future. At the same time, the company released its core market strategy in Brazil and plans to launch 10 new electric products within three years, including 4 pure electric and 6 hybrid models. The first product will be listed in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Profit forecast and investment rating of the company: we are optimistic about the launch rhythm of the company's new models in 2022. In the long run, the company's in-depth layout in the electric and intelligent industrial chain is its core competitiveness. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.78 billion yuan, 10.53 billion yuan and 12.21 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.74, 1.15 and 1.33 yuan respectively. The closing price on February 15, 2022 corresponds to the PE values from 2021 to 2023, which are 52, 34 and 29 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: the mitigation of core shortage in the industry is less than expected; The sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The development of new energy technology is less than expected.
