Market last week: light industry manufacturing sector index rose. From February 7, 2022 to February 11, 2022, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.78%, and the light industry manufacturing index rose by 1.10%, ranking 18th among the 28 Shenwan industries; The rise and fall of light industry manufacturing index sub sectors from high to low are: papermaking (+ 2.04%), packaging and printing (+ 1.41%), household light industry (+ 0.72%).
Furniture: Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) disclosure of performance notice. 1) Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) disclosed the performance express on February 10, 2022. It is estimated that the revenue will reach 3.45 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 30.7%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 340 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.47%; Deducting non net profit of 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.46%, 2021q4 revenue of 1.23 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 26.9%. 2) On February 10, 2022, according to the statistics of the people’s Bank of China, the stock of social financing scale in January 2022 was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; The scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Catalyzed by the social finance data in January exceeding market expectations, the customized furniture sector rose by + 2.18% last week (2022 / 2 / 7-2 / 11). As of 2022 / 2 / 11, the valuation of the customized furniture sector is still below the historical valuation center, and the valuation of the sector is expected to continue to repair. In terms of customization, we recommend [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ] and [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] in combination with the proportion of bulk business income, accounts receivable risk and valuation level. We suggest paying attention to [ Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) ] and [ Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) ]. In terms of software, it is the first to accelerate the promotion of independent brands and sink the leading [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ] in channel construction; Meanwhile, [ Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) ], [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [Minhua holdings] are recommended.
E-cigarette: British American Tobacco and Philip Morris International released their annual report in 2021, and the market share of new-type tobacco among international tobacco giants continued to increase. 1) On February 11, 2022, bat announced its performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the number of new tobacco users increased by 4.8 million to 18.3 million compared with 2020, setting a record for the company’s annual new users. Under the fixed exchange rate, the company’s sales revenue of atomized electronic cigarette VUSE in 2021 was + 59.3% year-on-year, and the volume of cigarette ejected goods was + 55.5% year-on-year; The sales revenue of heating non combustion glo was + 46.1% year-on-year, and the volume of cigarette ejected goods was + 78.7% year-on-year. 2) PMI announced the annual performance of 2021 and the performance of 2021q4 on February 10, 2022. In 2021, the revenue of new tobacco reached US $9.115 billion, accounting for 29% of the company’s net revenue. The scale of heating non combustion business was further expanded, and the total number of iqos users reached 21.2 million. According to the global tobacco epidemic report 2021 released by who, there will be about 1.3 billion people smoking traditional cigarettes in the world in 2020. We believe that the harm reduction effect of new tobacco is obvious. With the gradual implementation of regulatory policies, the transformation of traditional smokers will bring a broad market scale. We continue to recommend [Smallworld]; It is suggested that we should pay close attention to the close cooperation with China tobacco, and distribute the flavors and fragrances and evaluate the [ Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) ] with high price performance ratio. Enterprises with thick slurry flake production technology [ Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) ].
Papermaking: in terms of price, as of February 11, 2022, the price of wood pulp was 6351.6 yuan / ton, up 167 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of carton board paper is 4911 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 7 yuan / ton; The price of corrugated paper was 3918.8 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 19 yuan / ton; The price of white cardboard was 6020 yuan / ton, up 149 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The price of whiteboard was 4905 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The price of double copper paper was 5380 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of double offset paper was 5700 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of inventory, as of last Thursday (February 10, 2022), the weekly ratio of inventory of cultural paper and corrugated paper enterprises had decreased slightly. The industry operated stably and waited for the improvement of demand in 2022.
Risk tip: power rationing policy affects production capacity, raw material price fluctuations, intensified Sino US trade frictions, weak downstream demand, etc. Note: except for special notes, all currencies in the full text are RMB.
