The amplitude of steel and iron ore prices increased this week. On the surface, the NDRC frequently expressed its position to curb iron ore speculation, which hit the market sentiment, but in fact, most industrial products except steel and iron ore also experienced a shock callback. We believe that the price adjustment is essentially because the price of industrial products has rebounded greatly since November last year, and there is a demand for short-term rest. However, at present, it is uncertain whether this round of rebound will come to an end. This round of rebound was triggered by the overshoot recovery of the inventory cycle of the industrial chain and the repair of real demand in the early stage. After entering the off-season in January and February, the continued rise of prices was driven by the expectation of steady growth. At present, the demand of the iron and steel industry is still in the off-season, and the high-frequency data can not reflect the demand. The effect of steady growth can not be verified until mid March. Therefore, the steady growth expectation can not be verified before mid March, and the commodity market is still likely to continue trading the logic of steady growth. Another noteworthy factor is that the standardization of Finance and taxation in the scrap industry chain may lead to the rise of scrap cost and the contraction of scrap supply. This impact may be clearly reflected from February to March, which is a supporting factor for the short-term black price. From a longer time perspective, we believe that this round of price rebound since November belongs to the phased repair in the large downward demand cycle. After the steady growth pulse, we must be careful about the second half of the downward demand cycle, and the time node of demand turn may be in spring. Short term steady growth transactions can focus on Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , and growth-oriented new materials can focus on Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) .
Risk tip: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase.
