Investment advice
Recently, the fourth quarter report of 2021 of public funds has been disclosed. The military industry accounts for 5.19% of the market value of active public funds, with an over allocation range of 1.10ppt. Since 3q20, the military industry has entered the over allocation cycle. We believe that: 1) the allocation proportion of active public funds has been increasing, indicating that the recognition of institutions to the industry has been increasing; 2) The scale of industry themed funds has increased again, reaching a new record, reflecting the changes in market investment habits under the high boom of the industry, and market participants have gradually turned to institutions. Above all: even if the market performance is short-term or fluctuated, the industry trend is clear. Institutional positions can reflect the attention and confidence of the market to some extent.
Position analysis
Active funds continue to be oversubscribed and the range increases, but there is still a large space from the peak. 1) The market value of 4q21 active fund’s heavy positions in the military industry is 145.35 billion yuan, accounting for 5.19% of the total market value of the whole industry; The sector over allocation range was increased to 1.10ppt. 2) 4q21 over allocation range is still lower than the historical high (2q16 over allocation range is 2.1ppt); 3) In the whole industry, Minsheng military industry ranks fifth in the range of over allocation (CITIC first-class industry), which still has a large room for rise compared with the over allocation industries such as electronics, power equipment, new energy, food and beverage, medicine and so on; 4) The market value of 4q21 active funds (145.35 billion yuan) accounts for 76% of the market value of all funds (180.23 billion yuan).
Active funds mainly increase positions in new materials, informatization and aerospace sectors. 1) 4q21, the positions of active funds are still dominated by supporting enterprises, accounting for a slight increase (76% – > 77%); 2) In terms of the proportion of the stock market value in the circulation market value, new materials and informatization are still the most concerned by the market; 3) Active fund positions were mainly increased in new materials, informatization and aerospace sectors, with month on month increases of 1.01ppt, 0.96ppt and 0.86ppt respectively. Active funds have high concentration of heavy stocks, and 4q21 has less change than 3q21. 1) From the perspective of shareholding concentration, the total market value of the top 15 heavy positions of active funds accounts for 73%, and the concentration is high; 2) From the perspective of changes in the market value of holdings, Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) and Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) have the largest increase in the market value of positions; 3) From the perspective of the proportion of heavy position market value to current market value, Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) (+ 9.7%), Western Metal Materials Co.Ltd(002149) (+ 8.3%), Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) (+ 7.6%), Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) (+ 7.4%) and Piesat Information Technology Co.Ltd(688066) (+ 5.0%) increased the most. 4) Northbound capital holds Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) (its own circulating shares account for 10.1%).
Suggested concern
1) new materials: Western Superconducting Technologies Co.Ltd(688122) , Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) , Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) , Gaona Aero Material Co.Ltd(300034) , Avic Aviation High-Technology Co.Ltd(600862) , Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) , Sinofibers Technology Co.Ltd(300777) etc; 2) Informatization: Beijing Relpow Technology Co.Ltd(300593) , China Zhenhua (Group) Science & Technology Co.Ltd(000733) , Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co.Ltd(002049) , Avic Jonhon Optronic Technology Co.Ltd(002179) , Guizhou Space Appliance Co.Ltd(002025) , Raytron Technology Co.Ltd(688002) , Chengdu Rml Technology Co.Ltd(301050) , Fujian Torch Electron Technology Co.Ltd(603678) etc; 3) Midstream: Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) , Xi’An Triangle Defense Co.Ltd(300775) , Wuxi Paike New Materials Technology Co.Ltd(605123) , Beijing Beimo High-Tech Frictional Material Co.Ltd(002985) , Aecc Aero-Engine Control Co.Ltd(000738) etc; 4) Main engine factory: Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) , Avic Xi’An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) , Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avicopter Plc(600038) , Jiangxi Hongdu Aviation Industry Co.Ltd(600316) etc.
Risk tips
The market fluctuates greatly; Order delivery is lower than expected; The performance is lower than expected.
