Key investment points
Investment view: the price of photovoltaic industry chain rises, and policy support continues to increase
The market performance of the power equipment sector continued to be under pressure this week. Photovoltaic sector: from a fundamental point of view, affected by demand factors such as rush loading in India, the prices of the whole industry chain have increased to varying degrees. At present, the cost pressure on the component end is large, and it is expected that the price may rise slightly after the full resumption of work. This week, the national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon transformation of energy, emphasizing the promotion of the optimal combination of coal and new energy, dealing with the relationship between development and emission reduction, overall and local, short-term and medium and long-term, showing a certain degree of correction for the “carbon rush” and sports “carbon reduction” in the past, However, we believe that the “double carbon” policy in the general direction is still the main theme of future development. At the same time, the Opinions also proposed the development of BIPV, large wind and scenery base and distributed photovoltaic, which also reflects the state’s attitude of fully tapping new energy resources and needs and continuously increasing policies. Wind power sector: starting this week, intensive bidding and bid opening for wind power projects including China Resources and Huaneng. On the whole, we believe that under the conditions of moderate improvement of the industrial chain, recovery of operating rates in all links, recovery of downstream demand and continuous support from the policy side, the current short callback provides a good allocation opportunity and gives the power equipment industry an “overweight” rating.
Industry dynamics: the important “1 + n” guarantee scheme was released to promote the green and low-carbon transformation of energy
Industry trends: 1) the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policies and measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation, and implemented the carbon peak in the energy field in the notice of the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 issued by the State Council in October 2021. The opinions put forward 38 specific measures, including encouraging the integrated application of photovoltaic buildings, encouraging the construction of photovoltaic in rural areas, railways and roads, and accelerating the construction of large scenic bases. 2) The planning of the second batch of large scenic base projects has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400gw. 3) Shandong issued the 14th five year plan for renewable energy development in Shandong Province. It is planned that by 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power will reach 25gw, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach more than 57gw, and the large-scale development capacity of distributed photovoltaic in the whole county will reach more than 20GW. 4) The total installed capacity of Gansu Province will reach 5332.8 GW by 2025 and 0324.8 GW by 2020, respectively.
Company dynamics: 1) 455mw wind power project bid opening, prospective energy pre won the bid of 405MW, and Guodian United Power won the bid of 50MW. 2) Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) it is proposed to invest and build a 300MW photovoltaic power generation project in Saudi Arabia. 3) Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) it is proposed to issue 897 million yuan of convertible bonds for the construction of distributed photovoltaic power stations. 4) Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) signed 744 million reduction furnace order contract with Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) and Dongfang hope. 5) The bid opening of China Resources 500MW wind power project was conducted by 9 complete machine manufacturers, including the lowest quotation of tower tube of 2002 yuan / kW. 6) Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) it is planned to spend 3.5 billion to expand the integrated production capacity, covering silicon wafers, batteries, auxiliary materials and downstream power stations. 7) The 20GW heterojunction battery matrix material project of Jinyang silicon industry was started. 8) The bid opening of 10GW components and inverters of the State Power Investment Corporation, and the finalists of Jingao, Yingli, Jingke, Trina Solar, Haitai, sunshine, Shangneng, Tebian, jinlang, etc. 9) The bid opening of Huaneng 1138.5mw wind power project, Sany Heavy energy pre won the bid of 759mw, including the bidding price of 1745.7 million yuan of tower, equivalent to 2300 yuan / kW; Prospective energy won 379.5mw in advance, including 961.4 million yuan of tower bidding price, equivalent to 2533 yuan / kW.
Industrial chain tracking: the price of silicon material keeps stable and slightly rises, and the price of components rises
Silicon material: this week, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding was 235000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 242700 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.66%; The price range of single crystal compact is 233000-245000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 240200 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. The price of silicon materials continued to rise steadily and slightly this week, with the average transaction price of single crystal re feeding, single crystal compact materials and single crystal cauliflower materials rising by about 0.7%. In February, the supply and demand of silicon material market increased at the same time, but according to the production plan of silicon material and silicon wafer enterprises, the supply increment of about 20000 tons is less than the demand increment, and the supply of silicon material market in February will remain relatively scarce. Therefore, the orders in February were signed early and quickly. It is expected that the price of silicon material will maintain a relatively stable operation situation before signing a large number of orders in March at the end of the month. Silicon wafer: the average transaction price of 166mm single crystal silicon wafer in China this week was 5.28 yuan / piece, up 2.5% month on month; The average transaction price of 182mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 6.35 yuan / wafer, up 3.3% month on month; The average transaction price of 210mm monocrystalline silicon wafer was 8.45 yuan / wafer, up 4.3% month on month. This week, the price of silicon wafer basically formed a general upward trend of various specifications. From the Spring Festival holiday to this week, the silicon wafer production was relatively stable. Even if the recovery of crystal pulling activity of some enterprises was still blocked, the overall crystal pulling activity of the follow-up overall crystal pulling link increased significantly in February, the signing and implementation of silicon wafer orders were good, and some high price orders were also actively signed. Battery: this week, the average transaction price of 166mm battery chips in China was 1.09 yuan / W, up 0.9% month on month; This week, the average transaction price of 182mm battery chips in China was 1.11 yuan / W, up 0.9% month on month; This week, the average transaction price of 210mm battery chips in China was 1.11 yuan / W, up 2.8% month on month. After the Spring Festival holiday, the upstream price continued to rise, making the transaction price of battery chips rise slightly this week. Last year’s high point of battery price was above 1.1 yuan / W, and the corresponding component price was about 1.95-2 yuan / W. considering the acceptance of downstream components, it is unlikely that the price of battery in China will be adjusted to 1.13-1.14 yuan / W in the future. Therefore, it is expected that the price of battery in China will remain stable in the short term. Overseas regions benefit from the tide of hoarding in India, and there is still a certain premium space. Components: the average transaction price of 166mm components in China this week was 1.86 yuan / W, up 0.5% month on month; The average transaction prices of 182mm and 210mm components were 1.88 yuan / W and 1.88 yuan / W respectively, the same as last week. Component prices were stable this week. After the Spring Festival holiday, the pressure on the component end is constantly superimposed. Due to the rising cost of raw materials, auxiliary materials such as backplane and glass begin to brew a rise. Superimposed on the price rise of the supply chain, the component end is also brewing a price increase, but it is still in the resumption stage this week. Therefore, the price has not been adjusted.
Market performance last week: the power equipment sector increased by – 8.18%, ranking 28th
Last week’s market review: the power equipment sector increased by – 8.18% (last week’s increase was – 1.92%), ranking 28th (a total of 28 primary sub industries), which was – 11.20 percentage points compared with the Shanghai Composite Index and – 9.01 percentage points compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Among the constituent stocks of the industry (Shenwan power equipment) last week, the top five weekly gainers and losers were * ST Tiancheng (+ 21.43%), Jiangxi Special Electric Motor Co.Ltd(002176) (+ 18.74%), Chongqing Wanli New Energy Co.Ltd(600847) (+ 14.94%), huijintong (+ 14.93%) and Dalian electric porcelain (+ 13.33%). The last five weekly gainers and losers were Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) (- 18.75%), * ST Dongdian (- 19.10%) and Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) – U (- 21.09%) Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) (- 22.36%) and Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) (- 27.83%).
Risk tips
Risk of sharp price reduction of products, sharp rise in the price of raw materials, lower than expected downstream demand, risk of intensified industry competition, systemic risk of the market, performance failure of recommended companies, etc.
