In 2022, the year of inflection point, the long-term and short-term resonance starts
Under optimistic and neutral assumptions, it is expected that 2022h2 automobile industry will start a new round of inventory cycle recovery, and passenger cars will usher in sector allocation opportunities during the recovery period. It is expected that the industry will start a new round of zhugra cycle in 2022, and the supply chain will focus on the upgrading and reconstruction of electric intelligence as the main driving force. 2022 is an important turning point for the automotive industry. The long and short cycles are expected to resonate, and the parts sector may usher in a decade old bull.
From “new power” to “new strength”, independent brand car enterprises have risen in an all-round way with a four fold acceleration
It is estimated that the growth rate of the passenger car industry will be about 7% in 2022, and the recovery of chip supply will lead to the replenishment of channel inventory as the core driving force. It is estimated that 5.2 million new energy passenger vehicles will be sold in 2022, with a year-on-year growth rate of 56% and a penetration rate of about 22%. The market is characterized by supply driven. Electric transformation of Chinese market α And β Double strong resonance, independent car companies take the lead in the first half of electrification, and are expected to continue to take the lead in the second half of intellectualization. They are expected to rise in an all-round way with a four fold acceleration in the next decade.
The upgrading and reconstruction of the supply chain has been started, and the market value of the golden decade has reached trillion
The first half of electrification has created a global leader in power links, and the second half of intelligence needs more independent and controllable Chinese leading suppliers. The full rise of independent brands requires Chinese versions of “mainland” and “Bosch”. In 2030, the rise of independent auto enterprises with a four fold acceleration is expected to pry the market value of parts and components, with an incremental space of 4.1-8.3 trillion yuan. The industrial chain investment idea suggests paying attention to the clue of “perceived breakthrough, decision-making upgrading and implementation landing”. The wire controlled chassis is expected to reproduce the penetration curve of electric vehicles in the past five years, quickly increase the volume and take the lead in revenue.
Investment suggestions: the passenger car sector is recommended to pay attention to the systematic configuration opportunities before and after the confirmation of the recovery period, recommend Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) and Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile. The leading companies Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) of chassis by wire and the companies related to the industrial chain Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) are recommended in the parts sector. At the same time, intelligent “track” Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) , Meig Smart Technology Co.Ltd(002881) , Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) , Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) are recommended.
Risk warning: business risk, market risk, upstream raw material price rise risk, policy risk, technical risk, chip supply is less than expected risk.
