Core view:
The main line of steady growth in 2022 is highlighted. Steady growth focuses on steady investment, and the mechanical equipment industry benefits from multiple perspectives. Since November 2021, in response to the downward pressure on the economy, the steady growth policy has been continuously introduced. We believe that steady growth focuses on steady investment, and steady investment focuses on infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. Under the main line of steady growth, the impact on the mechanical equipment industry is mainly in the following five aspects: (1) moderately advanced infrastructure, stable rail transit investment and smooth economic demand, and urban rail construction deserves attention; (2) The construction of energy base, the installation of wind power photovoltaic can be expected, and the equipment end can benefit from acceleration; (3) The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the investment prospect of equipment in the charging and replacement industry chain is broad; (4) Under the background of “double carbon”, the demand for low-carbon transformation of traditional industries starts; (5) Special and new support for small and medium-sized enterprises will stimulate investment.
Moderately advance infrastructure construction, and urban rail investment is one of the key directions. As a typical infrastructure project, rail transit construction has played a role in stabilizing the economy in previous counter cyclical regulation. Affected by the epidemic, the national railway investment slowed down in 2020 and 2021, and the growth rate of urban rail transit investment slowed down. In the long run, the new era railway development plan frames the railway construction up to 2035, and urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas push up the demand for intercity and urban rail. We expect that rail transit investment, especially urban rail investment, will play a role in the next round of steady growth.
With the construction of energy base, the installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic can be expected, and the equipment end can benefit from acceleration. Under the dual carbon target, new energy infrastructure may become one of the main forces of steady growth. According to the forecast of China Power Council, the installed capacity of new wind power is expected to be 280-300gw in the 14th five year plan. According to the prediction of the photovoltaic Association, the global newly installed capacity will reach 270-330gw in 2025, of which 90-110gw will be newly installed in China. The high demand for installed capacity and the technological renewal iteration of various industrial chains bring huge equipment investment space.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the investment prospect of equipment in the charging and replacement industry chain is broad. In 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles was 3.521 million, with a year-on-year increase of 157.57%. In 2025, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million. At present, the energy supplement mode of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile mainly adopts two modes: charging and power exchange, with charging as the main mode and power exchange as the auxiliary mode. It is estimated that by 2025, the market scale of China’s charging pile will reach 120 billion to 200 billion yuan, and the market scale of power exchange station will reach 42-56 billion yuan.
Under the background of “double carbon”, the demand for low-carbon transformation of traditional industries drives the scale of trillion investment. Including the transformation of cleaner production in key industries (steel, coke, cement, etc.), the transformation of energy conservation and carbon reduction and the transformation of coal units. The total investment during the 14th Five Year Plan period was trillion.
Special and new support for small and medium-sized enterprises will stimulate investment. The central economic work conference mentioned the need to enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and stimulate the emergence of a large number of specialized, special and new enterprises. China’s manufacturing industry is in the critical stage of transforming from big to strong, and its development needs the support of a number of competitive enterprises in subdivided fields. The number of Companies in the machinery industry ranks first in terms of specialization, which is expected to breed invisible champion enterprises in subdivided industries.
Risk tip: the policy support is lower than expected, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic industry is lower than expected, and the industry competition is intensified.
