Market review: this week, the mechanical equipment index rose 0.55%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82%, and the gem index fell 5.59%. Machinery and equipment ranked 21st in the rise and fall of all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 24.0 (overall method). The top three sectors in the machinery industry this week are oil and gas development equipment, shipping equipment and instruments; Since the beginning of the year, the top three segments are oil and gas development equipment, engineering machinery and instruments.
Weekly attention: the decline in excavator sales in January continued to narrow, and attention was paid to the investment opportunities in the machinery sector under the main line of steady growth
In January, the decline of excavator sales continued to narrow, and the proportion of exports increased. According to the statistics of 26 excavator manufacturing enterprises by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 15607 excavators of various types were sold in January 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%; Among them, there were 8282 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%; 7325 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of 105%. In 2021, 25 main engine manufacturers sold 342784 excavators, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, of which 274357 were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 6.3%; Export sales volume was 68427, with a year-on-year increase of 97.0%.
China’s real GDP growth rate in 2021 was 8.1% and the average growth rate in 2020-2021 was 5.1%. From a worldwide perspective, growth has obvious advantages, but from a trend point of view, it has weakened quarter by quarter. In 2022, consumption is weak under the repeated epidemic, and the export base is high or difficult to maintain a high growth rate. In order to achieve the expectation of economic growth of 5.5% – 6%, the foothold of stable growth lies in stable investment. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in 2021 was 4.9%, lower than that of GDP, mainly driven by manufacturing investment. From the perspective of trend, the annual investment growth rate showed a gradual slowdown trend. Looking forward to 2022, policies will help steady growth, and investment growth is expected to accelerate.
In 2022, the main line of steady growth was highlighted, and the mechanical equipment industry benefited from multiple perspectives. Since November 2021, in response to the downward pressure on the economy, the steady growth policy has continued to increase. Steady growth focuses on steady investment, and the starting point is expected to fall on infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment. The impact on the mechanical equipment sector is mainly in the following five aspects: (1) moderately advanced infrastructure, stable rail transit investment and smooth economic demand, and urban rail construction deserves attention; (2) The construction of energy base, the installation of wind power photovoltaic can be expected, and the equipment end can benefit from acceleration; (3) The sales volume of new energy vehicles has increased greatly, and the investment prospect of equipment in the charging and replacement industry chain is broad; (4) Under the background of “double carbon”, the demand for low-carbon transformation of traditional industries starts; (5) Special and new support for small and medium-sized enterprises will stimulate investment.
Investment suggestions: we are optimistic about the investment opportunities in multiple industries in the machinery sector under the main line of steady growth. The key investment directions include urban rail industry chain, photovoltaic equipment, new energy charging and replacement equipment, energy conservation and emission reduction equipment, specialization and innovation and other subdivided fields. In terms of benefit targets, it is suggested to pay attention to Traffic Control Technology Co.Ltd(688015) in the urban rail industry chain; Photovoltaic equipment field Zhejiang Jingsheng Mechanical & Electrical Co.Ltd(300316) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , Wuhan Dr Laser Technology Corp.Ltd(300776) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) etc; Field of power exchange equipment Suzhou Harmontronics Automation Technology Co.Ltd(688022) , Bozhon Precision Industry Technology Co.Ltd(688097) , Shandong Weida Machinery Co.Ltd(002026) etc; Energy conservation and emission reduction Xi’An Shaangu Power Co.Ltd(601369) and so on; Specialize in special new fields Shareate Tools Ltd(688257) and so on.
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; Manufacturing investment fell.
