Core view
Pay attention to the investment opportunities that may be brought by the recovery of infrastructure investment. We believe that the growth rate of infrastructure investment in the first half of the year is expected to reach a new high since 2017. At present, there are three channels to prove it. 1. Cement clinker along the river increased more than expected: on February 7, cement clinker along the river increased by 30 yuan / ton, which exceeded market expectations and historical levels in the same period. The national average price of cement has continued to fall from the high point of 602 yuan / ton after double control of energy consumption in October 2021 to more than 500 yuan / ton, which is significantly higher than the highest level of 456 yuan / ton in the same period in history. At present, there are signs that the cement has stopped falling and rebounded at the time point, which means that the current construction industry has a fast pace of resumption of work, and the demand for early cycle commencement has formed a good support for the cement price. 2. Accelerated growth of financing amount of special bonds: the financing amount of special bonds issued in January 2022 was 569.83 billion yuan, an increase of 281% at the same time. Since October 2021, the financing amount has increased by more than 200% in a single month for four consecutive months, and the financing amount has also increased by 43% based on TTM caliber. If the current growth rate of special bond financing can be maintained, it is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure construction in the first half of the year is likely to exceed 5% or even 10%, reaching a new high since 2017. 3. The financial data in January improved significantly: in January, the scale of social financing was 6.17 trillion yuan, reaching the highest level in history, with an increase of 18.9% and a growth rate of more than 15% for four consecutive months. Among them, the medium and long-term credit of enterprises reached 2.1 trillion yuan, which was the main source of new social finance. The monthly growth rate reached 2.9%, which was positive for the first time in seven months. We believe that the current real estate risk continues to release, the real estate enterprises have limited ability to absorb credit, the medium and long-term credit of new enterprises mainly comes from infrastructure projects, and the signal of infrastructure credit easing has been basically confirmed. For most early cycle building materials varieties, the improvement of basic construction demand at the current demand side is uncertain, but the downside risk of real estate construction demand is also great. Whether the rise of the growth rate of infrastructure investment can hedge the decline of the growth rate of new construction is a variable that should be paid attention to in the future. Priority should be given to the selection of varieties and stocks that account for a high proportion of infrastructure business and can better transmit cost pressure. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of pipe and waterproof industry.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 02 / 07-2022 / 02 / 11), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by 6.6%, compared with the excess return of CSI 300 was 5.8%. Year to date, the yield of the building materials sector is – 1.6%, compared with 5.3% of the excess yield of CSI 300. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was 2.6%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was – 4.1%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was – 1.2% / – 8.7%.
Summary of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 108.92 yuan / weight box, up 2.1% month on month, flat year-on-year. The inventory was 43.42 million weight boxes, up 23.7% month on month. We believe that the scale of cold repair in the industry is expected to increase in 2022, the completion of real estate will still maintain a small growth, the price is expected to rise, and there is room for repair of the overall fundamentals. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6275 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 11250 yuan / ton, down 4.9% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. The average transaction price in the national cement market this week was 516 yuan / ton. The cement delivery rate decreased by 7.6pct to 4.2% month on month, and the storage capacity increased by 9.7pct to 53% month on month. The decline of cement volume data is mainly due to the resumption of work after the festival. We should focus on and follow up the range and rhythm of clinker price adjustment along the river after the festival
Investment proposal and investment object
Optimistic about the bottom recovery of glass prices, corresponding to key recommendations Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (601636, buy), CSG a (000012, buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) (603916, buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) (002271, buy), and China Liansu (02128, buy). The glass fiber market continues to improve, and China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) (600176, buy) is recommended. Preferred combination of Dongfang Building Materials next week: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , CSG a, China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , China Liansu
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
