Core view
Photovoltaic: the price of photovoltaic industry chain rebounded, and the scale of the second batch of large scenic base projects exceeded 400gw. 1) Silicon material: this week, the price range of China’s single crystal re feeding was 235000-247000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rose to 242700 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.66%; The price range of single crystal compact is 233000-245000 yuan / ton, and the average transaction price rises to 240200 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 0.71%. The reasons for the slight rise of silicon material price are as follows: before the festival, most silicon material manufacturers have signed long orders in February, and most of the signed orders this week are loose orders with slightly higher prices. With the superposition of the stable demand of downstream silicon wafer enterprises, the inventory pressure of polysilicon Enterprises is small, and the market price continues the slight rise trend before the festival. 2) Silicon wafer: the price of silicon wafer rose slightly this week. From the perspective of supply side, most enterprises produced normally during the Spring Festival, the output was not affected, and the new production capacity was released on schedule; From the perspective of demand side, downstream battery manufacturers are purchasing vigorously, and the supply of silicon wafer is in short supply; From the perspective of inventory, the inventory of most silicon wafer manufacturers flows normally. Overall, silicon wafer prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. 3) Battery: affected by the factors of upstream price rise, the price of battery has increased to a certain extent recently. 4) Components: after the festival, the component end is under great pressure, and the auxiliary materials are brewing a rise due to the rise in the price of raw materials. Combined with the transmission of the rise in the price of the industrial chain, the component end price also has an upward trend. The price has not changed significantly due to the resumption of work this week. The planning of the second batch of large scenic bases has been basically completed, with a total scale of more than 400gw, and will be implemented during the 14th five year plan and the 15th five year plan, of which more will be implemented during the 15th five year plan. The operation of the second batch of scenic bases is different from that of the first batch: this batch is concentrated in the three northern regions, mainly in kubri, Tengger and other deserts for unified planning, and then carry out bidding. At the same time, the second batch of bases pay more attention to consumption. Combined with the existing coal power supply around the base, the “thermal power + new energy” joint transmission is carried out by using the peak shaving capacity of thermal power. Therefore, this batch is mainly sent out. Component orders are concentrated to the head enterprises, and the size is obviously large. According to the statistical data of soby photovoltaic network, the head concentration effect of module orders in 2021 is obvious. The total shipment volume of the top ten enterprises exceeds 160gw, accounting for more than 90% of the newly installed capacity on the global DC side. The shipment volume of the top 6 enterprises exceeds 130gw, which is very competitive. From the perspective of size, each company has the ability to produce large-size components, and in the component bidding data in 2021, 500m + components account for more than 80%.
Wind power: procurement bid opening of 500 MW wind turbine in China Resources Abaga banner. On February 9, the wind turbine (including tower, anchor bolt, etc.) of China Resources Power Abaga banner beligutai 500MW wind power project was opened. There are 9 complete machine manufacturers bidding for the project, of which the average quotation is equivalent to the unit price of 2092 yuan / kW, of which the lowest quotation is CRRC Zhuzhou Institute, and the equivalent unit price is 2002 yuan / kW. Publicity of bid evaluation results of Zhejiang energy Taizhou 300MW offshore wind turbine. On January 27, the bid evaluation results of wind turbine and auxiliary equipment of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 offshore wind farm project were publicized. Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) is the first candidate for winning the bid. The total installed capacity of the project is 300MW. The highest quotation per kilowatt of offshore wind turbine (including tower) this time is Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , totaling 4485.96 yuan / kW. The bidding is for its newly developed 9mw wind turbine; The lowest quotation is Dongfang wind power, which is 3548 yuan / kW.
Investment proposal and investment object
The photovoltaic sector recommends Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012, buy), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438, buy), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459, buy), Shanghai Hiuv New Materials Co.Ltd(688680) (688680, buy), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (603806, buy). It is recommended to pay attention to Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (688599, not rated); The wind power sector recommends Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) (603218, overweight), and it is recommended to pay attention to Titan Wind Energy (Suzhou) Co.Ltd(002531) (002531, not rated), Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) (002487, not rated), Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) (603985, not rated), Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) (603606, not rated).
Risk tips
The growth of photovoltaic industry is less than expected; The growth of wind power industry is less than expected.
