Industry core view:
2022.2.07-2022.2.11: this week, the new power industry decreased by – 8.18%, and the CSI 300 increased by 0.82% in the same period, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.00pct. It ranks 31st among Shenwan’s 31 industry sectors.
Key investment points:
New energy vehicles: in January 2022, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market continued to grow at a high rate. In January 2022, the new forces of car manufacturing represented by “xiaoliwei” ushered in a new breakthrough in performance. Among them, 12922 Xiaopeng cars were delivered in January, with a year-on-year increase of 115%; Ideal cars delivered 12268 ideal one, a year-on-year increase of 128.1%; Weilai automobile delivered 9652 new cars, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%. In addition to the improvement of product quality and technical strength, industry experts believe that there are two reasons for the “good start” of new energy vehicles: first, the “lack of core” and the repeated epidemic have postponed some backlog orders to January; Second, the head effect appears, and consumers increasingly recognize the leading new energy vehicle brand. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the national passenger car market information joint committee, believes that although the current decline of subsidies and the rise of vehicle prices are unfavorable to consumers, the current oil price is on the rise, and new energy vehicles are still attractive to consumers. In the future, the consumer group will be divided, and the high-end models will be dominated by high nickel batteries, while the low-end models equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries will have more and more significant price advantages in the future. We are optimistic that the penetration rate of lithium iron phosphate battery will be further improved in 2022, and we suggest paying attention to relevant cathode targets. It is recommended to focus on Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) (300073), and Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (603659).
New energy power generation: in terms of photovoltaic, on February 10, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued institutional mechanisms and policy measures to improve the green and low-carbon transformation of energy. The document pointed out that: improve the application standards of renewable energy in buildings, encourage the integrated application of photovoltaic buildings, and support the construction of renewable energy building energy supply systems using Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) , geothermal energy and biomass energy; Promote the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy. Accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases focusing on deserts, Gobi and desert areas; Innovative rural renewable energy development and utilization mechanism. In rural areas, priority should be given to supporting the access of biomass power generation such as roof distributed photovoltaic power generation and biogas power generation to the power grid, and power grid enterprises should give priority to purchasing their power generation. The construction of photovoltaic industry will be combined with new infrastructure and new rural construction to promote the continuous release of production capacity and the rapid growth of penetration. It is suggested to pay attention to Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (601012), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (600438), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (002459), Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) (601865) and Beijing Jingyuntong Technology Co.Ltd(601908) (601908). In terms of wind power, the bidding price of wind turbines continued to be low this week. On February 9, the procurement project of wind turbine (including tower, anchor bolt and anchor sector) goods and services of China Resources Power Abaga banner beligutai 500MW wind power project was opened. Nine complete machine manufacturers participated in the bidding. The lowest bidding price including tower was 2002 yuan / kW of CRRC Zhuzhou Institute. The falling fan price will promote the continuous release of demand. We recommend Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) (002202), Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) (601615) and Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) (688186).
Hydrogen energy: as one of the basic industries supporting the development of national economy, the iron and steel industry is the main battlefield of industrial green development under the dual carbon goal. As the development heat of hydrogen energy industry continues to rise, the iron and steel industry has carried out hydrogen demonstration, and its enthusiasm for R & D, design and supporting equipment manufacturing is also obvious. Many iron and steel enterprises represented by iron and steel have made significant progress in the construction of hydrogenation network, the promotion and operation of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen energy metallurgy and so on. For example, China Baowu has made a comprehensive layout of the hydrogen energy industry chain and green metallurgy, TISCO will strengthen cooperation in the hydrogen and electricity industry, Taishan Iron and steel will promote the coordinated development of hydrogen refueling stations and hydrogen vehicles, Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) will enter the upstream LNG hydrogen production of hydrogen energy. As a secondary energy, hydrogen energy will energize traditional cyclical enterprises, while the heavy asset collaborative hydrogen energy development of large iron and steel enterprises will promote the rapid development of hydrogen energy industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Beijing Sinohytec Co.Ltd(688339) (688339), Weichai Power Co.Ltd(000338) (000338) and Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) (000723).
Risk factors: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; Safety risks of new energy vehicles; Affected by the epidemic, the opening of photovoltaic market was less than expected; Price fluctuation risk of raw materials; The approval and commencement of offshore wind power are not as expected; The wind power project has been approved and the grid connection is not as expected; The growth of photovoltaic installed capacity is lower than expected; Power grid investment is less than expected
