Key points
Event:
On February 11, the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version) (hereinafter referred to as the guide). The guide proposes to guide transformation and upgrading, strengthen technological research, promote agglomeration development and accelerate the elimination of backward industries, and defines the work direction and objectives of energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation in 17 industries such as oil refining, ethylene, modern coal chemical industry and synthetic ammonia.
Comments:
Formulate the transformation goal of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industry and significantly improve the energy efficiency level of the industry: in 2020, China has clearly put forward the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization, strive to reach the peak of carbon dioxide emission in 2030, and strive to achieve carbon neutralization in 2060. In this context, China has adopted a series of effective policies and measures to curb carbon emissions. In response to the goal of carbon neutralization, the guidelines issued by the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments put forward energy-saving and carbon reduction transformation and upgrading requirements for high energy consuming industries such as oil refining, ethylene and modern coal chemical industry from the supply side. The guide points out that by 2025, the production capacity below the benchmark level of energy efficiency in 17 industries such as oil refining, ethylene, modern coal chemical industry and synthetic ammonia will be basically cleared, the effect of energy conservation and carbon reduction in various industries will be remarkable, and the ability of green and low-carbon development will be greatly improved. Under the guidance of the goal of energy conservation, carbon reduction, transformation and upgrading, it is expected that the technical routes of 17 industries will be significantly optimized in the future, and the energy efficiency level of the industry will be significantly improved.
Promote the development of industrial agglomeration and optimize the competition pattern of high energy consuming industries: the guide points out that backbone enterprises will be guided to give full play to their advantages in capital, talents and technology, voluntarily carry out mergers and acquisitions in this field through the elimination of the superior and the replacement of production capacity, focus on the planning and construction of standardized and integrated production bases, and improve the level of process equipment and energy utilization efficiency, Build a development pattern with reasonable structure, effective competition, standardization and order, and do not blindly expand production capacity and low-level repeated construction in the name of merger and reorganization. Under the guidance of the guide, it is expected that the chemical industry will further move towards large-scale and integration in the future; At the same time, the blind expansion of production capacity and low-level redundant construction are restrained, which is conducive to the effective integration of supply side resources and sustainable and orderly development. In addition, the integration projects in the seven petrochemical industry bases have been put into operation, which not only provides infrastructure support for the large-scale and integration trend of the chemical industry, but also provides a strong guarantee for the implementation of the guide.
Accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity and benefit the development of leading chemical enterprises: the guide also emphasizes accelerating the elimination of backward production capacity. The document indicates that backward process technologies and production devices that do not meet the requirements of green and low-carbon transformation and development will be eliminated according to law and regulations. For the production capacity whose energy efficiency is below the benchmark level and it is difficult to achieve above the benchmark level through transformation and upgrading within the specified time limit, accelerate its exit through market-oriented and legal means. The gradual withdrawal of backward production capacity will promote the optimization of the competition pattern of the chemical industry and further enhance the industry concentration. At the same time, in the process of eliminating backward production capacity, the implementation process of energy consumption indicators of leading enterprises will be accelerated, and it is expected that the approval of new projects will also be inclined to chemical leading enterprises with more advanced energy consumption level. Under the background of increasing industry concentration, the market share of leading enterprises is expected to expand, and the chemical leading enterprises are expected to benefit significantly during the implementation of the “Zhinan”.
Oil refining and coal chemical industry have great potential for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the future. Oil refining industry is the leader of petrochemical industry, which is related to economic lifeline and energy security. At present, there are great differences in the large-scale level of the oil refining industry, with the coexistence of advanced production capacity and backward production capacity. Its energy consumption mainly includes the large proportion of small and medium-sized units, the low thermal efficiency of heating furnace, insufficient optimization of energy system, large energy consumption of power consuming equipment and so on. By the end of 2020, about 25% of China’s oil refining industry’s capacity with energy efficiency better than the benchmark level and about 20% of the capacity with energy efficiency lower than the benchmark level. There is great potential for energy conservation, carbon reduction, transformation and upgrading. Modern coal chemical industry is an effective way to promote clean and efficient utilization of coal, and has become an important supplement to the petrochemical industry. At present, there are significant differences in energy efficiency among enterprises in modern coal chemical industry. The main problems of energy consumption are insufficient utilization of waste heat, low level of process heat integration, low energy efficiency of steam / power consuming equipment and so on. By the end of 2020, the capacity of China’s coal to methanol industry with energy efficiency better than the benchmark level accounted for about 15%, and the capacity with energy efficiency lower than the benchmark level accounted for about 25%; The capacity of coal to olefin industry whose energy efficiency is better than the benchmark level accounts for about 48%, and the total capacity is higher than the benchmark level; Coal to ethylene glycol industry accounts for about 20% of the capacity whose energy efficiency is better than the benchmark level, and about 40% of the capacity whose energy efficiency is lower than the benchmark level. The industry has a large space for energy conservation and carbon reduction transformation and upgrading.
Investment suggestion: the implementation of the guide is conducive to the integration and large-scale development of the chemical industry, and will further enhance the industry concentration. The market share and business environment of leading enterprises are expected to be improved. It is suggested to pay attention to the leaders of various sub industries of chemical industry: (1) three chemical white horses: Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) ; (2) Private refining and chemical fiber sector: Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ; (3) Light hydrocarbon cracking sector: Satellite chemistry, Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) ; (4) Coal to olefin: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) .
Risk warning: the implementation of the policy is not as strong as expected; Crude oil prices fluctuate sharply; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
