Key changes this week (0207-0211): ① on February 7, the price of clinker along the river in Anhui increased by 30 yuan / ton, which was due to the rise in the price of raw materials. ② This week, China’s float glass rose 176 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival (2022 / 1 / 29), and the month on month increase was expanded compared with that before the festival. ③ The central bank and the cbcirc made it clear that the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans. ④ The national development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration jointly held a meeting to make arrangements for ensuring the supply and price of coal. ⑤ In January 2022, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.98 trillion yuan over the same period of last year. ⑥ On Friday, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of market supervision will carry out joint supervision and Research on iron ore, and the commodity futures market generally fell.
Core view: (1) the price of glass has been rising continuously, and some manufacturers in Shahe have lined up to pull goods. It is suggested to pay attention to the replenishment demand, completion order backfilling and cost addition, and focus on the target [ Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) ]. The recent decline in futures is expected to have little to do with fundamentals.
(2) Advance price increase of cement: the price increase of clinker is higher than expected. Combined with the upstream and downstream inventory and the price of clinker imported from Vietnam, we believe that the price increase of clinker is more than one round. According to the experience of previous years, after the 15th day of the first month, the construction workers successively return to the construction site and start construction, and the price increase of cement is expected to start. Combined with the pressure of coal cost, the key of Q1 lies in the hedge between infrastructure increase and real estate decrease, and Q2 is optimistic about the double rise of infrastructure and real estate consumption.
(3): from the end of 21q4 policy to the end of 22q1 market, the real estate chain may be more optimistic. The introduction of the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds and the 5-year LPR reduction are conducive to the restoration of market confidence. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from “small launch and stable expectation” to “high-frequency launch and heavy landing”. The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market. We judge that we are expected to see marginal improvements in front-end sales, construction and other data in the next quarter. We believe that the real estate chain may be more optimistic. Combined with the volume of social finance, the valuation directly reflects the expectation, and will be accompanied by the increase in the performance expectation of leading companies in 2022. The consumption of building materials and cement directly benefited from the improvement of the front end, and the completion and delivery of glass were accelerated. At the current time point, the second-line leaders have greater flexibility in performance repair, and the first-line leaders have stronger sustainability. They pay attention to the significant improvement of the external environment of the real estate chain, the repair of performance expectations, and the baptism of the bottom. At the same time, the concentration has increased, and the voice of large downstream real estate developers has been weakened accordingly. Core targets include [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ] [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ], elastic targets [ Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ] [ Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) ] [ Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ] [ Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) ] [ Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ]. In addition, at the end of January, many companies issued performance forecasts for 2021, increased the credit loss rate of real estate customers based on the principle of prudence, and made provision for impairment of some customers. We believe that since the risk fermentation in the second half of 2020, the market has expected that the provision is sufficient, the impairment risk is fully released, and consumer building materials and building decoration enterprises are expected to be light in 2022.
(4) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof. In January, social finance greatly exceeded expectations, and there was no shortage of projects and funds for infrastructure, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure of Q1 economy. Growth + cycle focus on water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], robustness + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], and pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu] [ Shandong Donghong Pipe Industry Co.Ltd(603856) ].
(5) continue to be optimistic about the TOC retail model and pay attention to the value of high-quality operation and business model. Core recommendation [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profit, concentric circle strategy speed-up; Focus on C + small B [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] [ Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ].
(6) new materials throughout the year: carbon glass composites of wind power blades, UTG glass, medicinal glass, wind power grouting, photovoltaic glass, etc. The contribution of new business revenue has increased steadily, with smooth periodicity, which is conducive to obtaining carbon emission indicators.
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation.
