Core view
The national pre-sale fund supervision will be made clear. The pre-sale fund quota supervision is the key quota supervision, which is approved by the urban and rural construction department at the city and county level according to the project cost contract, which can ensure the fund quota required for the completion of the project. When the funds in the account reach the supervision quota, the funds exceeding the quota can be withdrawn and used freely by the real estate enterprises. We believe that on the one hand, this document defines the bottom line of guarantee delivery, on the other hand, it makes effective expectation guidance from the national level and unifies the way of capital supervision in various regions, so as to reduce the problems such as unclear supervision policies, high extraction base in some regions and unreasonable extraction rhythm, which will help alleviate the short-term capital pressure of real estate enterprises, To prevent the downward trend of industry fundamentals from further evolving into the risk of the financial system. In addition, the central bank announced that affordable rental housing related loans will no longer be included in the concentration management of real estate loans, further indicating the determination of the central government to stabilize growth.
In January 22, the net increase of residents’ medium and long-term loans was 742.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%, with negative growth for two consecutive months, an increase of 2.4pct compared with December 21. Although many governments have successively issued loose policies to guide house purchase consumption from reducing the proportion of provident fund loans, relaxing pre-sale funds and encouraging house purchase, the expectation and confidence on the demand side have not been significantly improved.
At present, the valuation center of the industry has been repaired. At this stage, the rebound logic of the sector is still mainly based on the expectation of policy relaxation. The strength management after the direction is confirmed will still have a strong correlation with the upward space of the sector. Under the background of steady growth, we believe that the strength of policy release will be strengthened step by step, and we do not rule out non hot cities to break the shackles of excessive regulation in the past, The subsequent industry fundamentals are expected to usher in recovery with the gradual improvement of policies. For real estate enterprises, with the reconstruction of the industry pattern and development model in the future, the operation and management efficiency and credit acquisition ability of real estate enterprises will be the key factors in the medium and long term. Accelerating the liquidation within the industry means the emergence of opportunities to improve the concentration. We suggest paying attention to real estate enterprises with relatively stable operation and finance, and continue to recommend China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) (00000 2. SZ), Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048. SH) Gemdale Corporation(600383) (600383. SH), China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (001979. SZ), China Overseas Development (0688. HK).
Risk tips
The epidemic has escalated again, which has an impact on the real estate sales end. The pilot strength of real estate tax is higher than expected, the house price is lower than expected, the regulation policy continues to be high-pressure, the improvement of financing environment is lower than expected, and the liquidity risk of the industry is intensified.
