According to the production and sales data of the Federation of passenger cars in January, the output of narrow passenger cars (cars / SUVs / MPVS) in China increased by 10.4% year-on-year / decreased by 16.5% month on month to 2.059 million vehicles, the wholesale sales increased by 6.8% year-on-year / decreased by 8.2% month on month to 2.172 million vehicles, and the retail sales decreased by 4.4% year-on-year / decreased by 0.6% month on month to 2.092 million vehicles. According to our judgment, 1) at present, China’s passenger car market is still affected by the tight supply chain and the repeated epidemic in some regions, resulting in the extension of mass production and delivery cycle. 2) The data of January reflect the characteristics of seasonal fluctuations and the influence of Spring Festival factors; Among them, the performance of independent brands is strong (the proportion of wholesale / retail market of independent brands in January increased by 2.4pcts/4.5pcts to 46.4% / 45.5% respectively compared with the whole year of 2021).
In January, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles was 19.0% and the retail penetration rate was 16.6%. In January, the output of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 141.0% year-on-year / decreased by 11.8% month on month to 428000 vehicles, and the wholesale sales volume increased by 141.4% year-on-year / decreased by 18.5% month on month to 412000 vehicles (the wholesale penetration rate increased by 10.6pcts year-on-year / decreased by 2.3pcts to 19.0%), Retail sales increased by 132.0% year on year / decreased by 27.0% month on month to 347000 vehicles (retail penetration increased by 9.8 PCTs year on year / decreased by 6.0 PCTs month on month to 16.6%). According to our judgment, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles remained relatively stable in January, and the decline was mainly due to 1) the wholesale / retail penetration rate of independent brands decreased by 3.2pcts/7.6pcts respectively; 2) Tesla‘s retail sales decreased by 73% month on month (the proportion of exports increased significantly month on month). We calculate that the proportion of Tesla‘s retail sales to exports fluctuates or the retail penetration rate is about 2 + PCTs month on month.
Optimistic about the sales prospects of high-end pure electric and plug-in hybrid market segments: from the perspective of the split of wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January, 1) the penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is about 32.0% (vs. luxury cars / mainstream joint ventures are about 22.9% / 2.7% respectively). 2) The total proportion of pure electric vehicles was 80.8% to 333000 (a year-on-year increase of 130.4% / a month on month decrease of 21.2%); Among them, A00 and class B pure electric account for about 32% / 30% respectively (vs. class a pure electric accounts for about 22%). 3) The total proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles is 19.2% to 79000 (a year-on-year increase of 202.1% / a month on month decrease of 4.3%), of which Byd Company Limited(002594) plug-in hybrid vehicles account for about 47000 (plug-in hybrid vehicles account for nearly 59%).
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the prospect of continuous release of electric vehicle 2C demand. It is expected that car enterprises are still expected to hedge policy fluctuations and rising cost pressure by retaining orders, time limited price protection, and comprehensive adjustment of price and equity, so as to drive the steady release of new orders; Among them, high-end pure electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid or market segments with strong certainty of sales growth, it is expected that production capacity, supply chain and logistics are still the leading factors affecting the climbing. We expect that the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) passenger cars in 2022e will be 5-5.5 million, and we are optimistic about car companies with strong model product cycle (chip supply mitigation, strong sales volume and profit elasticity), continuous increase of new energy penetration / clear promotion path of intelligent electrification. In the passenger car sector, traditional car companies recommend Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Geely Automobile, and it is recommended to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) . New forces recommend Tesla, and it is recommended to pay attention to the ideal for a long time.
Risk analysis: the reduction of chip shortage is less than expected; Replenishment is less than expected; Rising prices of raw materials; The launch and climbing of new models are less than expected; The cost control is less than expected, the profit drops, the epidemic situation repeats, and the market risk.
