The overall atmosphere of Baijiu spring sales is a little dull. (1) the feedback and sales of the epidemic area were flat or even slightly down. Some banquet scenes were mainly affected by the lack of the epidemic situation, which affected the dynamic selling of the Baijiu liquor. High-end Baijiu gifts, high-end banquets demand, relatively rigid demand, affected by the epidemic less. Downtown pressure on the economy of the 2 Baijiu district has improved in the past few years, but the improvement is not significant. The main reason is that this year’s epidemic control and control is relatively loose and the impact of the dot epidemic is weakening. But the continued downward pressure on the macro-economy since the second half of last year has affected the consumption ability of some enterprises’ customers and consumers. Therefore, there is no obvious peak sales in non epidemic areas. (3) a few areas benefited from the basic epidemic free influence + the return of personnel and the economic toughness. The Baijiu sales in spring and autumn showed a relatively strong situation, which had a good growth compared to the same period last year. For example, in Anhui and Jiangsu, the core products of local leading liquor enterprises had a higher dynamic sales growth rate under the premise of stable price and low normal storage. It is a highlight of the whole spring festival Baijiu research and feedback.
Before and after the Spring Festival, the sales of Baijiu liquor is dull but better than the pessimistic expectations of the pre holiday market. Pre Baijiu sector fell sharply, and the valuation of price performance has shown again. We believe that the current position of Baijiu sector can be more positive. At present, the biggest difficulty faced by the industry is that the macroeconomic downturn affects the consumption capacity, while at the industry level, the price and inventory of famous wines are healthy, and the industry order is improving. Looking forward to the future, (1) the impact of the epidemic is gradually passivated, epidemic prevention policies are more flexible, and the scope of limited consumption scenarios will be further reduced; (2) With the steady growth policy, macroeconomic stabilization and recovery is a relatively certain trend. At present, the fundamentals of the industry are mainly stable, and it is expected to strengthen again with the recovery of macro viewing attitude in the future. However, due to the uncertainty of the recovery speed of consumption capacity, the weak demand period may continue for some time. This stage especially tests the channel price and inventory control ability of wine enterprises, and the winery needs to balance the volume and price.
Baijiu sector investment strategy: to enhance the degree of importance for performance certainty. The demand for high-end Baijiu is relatively resilience, while the large single product, Pu five, and national cellar 1573 are not many alternatives to the price belt of their representatives. Meanwhile, the internal governance and channel control capabilities of wine enterprises are all improving. The certainty of achieving steady growth this year is still strong, and recommend Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) . The sub high-end liquor enterprises will continue the trend of differentiation and further focus on brands. The sub high-end liquor enterprises with strong channel control ability, stable channel profits and continuous promotion of brand construction can accelerate the harvest of market share and support the certainty of performance, focusing on Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) and Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) . In addition, the sub high-end of some leading real estate liquor companies is also worthy of attention. At present, the growth of leading real estate liquor companies mainly depends on deep cultivation of the base market. Companies with more in-depth channel construction in the province are expected to achieve further growth in sales. Leading real estate liquor companies with obvious consumption upgrading trend in the provincial market are expected to show stronger growth and pay attention to Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) .
Investment strategy of popular products sector: the demand toughness of dairy products is relatively strong, and other foods focus on performance improvement. Volkswagen products is expected to usher in performance improvement in price increase transmission and scene recovery. During the Spring Festival, the overall year-on-year improvement of Volkswagen’s goods and mobile sales, and the early price increase of some sub industries is actively transmitted to the terminal. (1) The demand toughness of the dairy industry is prominent, the high-end development is good, and the basic market of liquid milk business is strengthened; The pressure on the cost side is controllable, the leading dairy enterprises have sufficient space to cope with the upward cost, the investment of industry expenses tends to be rational, and the certainty of improving profitability is high, so Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) is recommended. (2) Some sub industry leaders with a clear pattern have a smooth transmission of price increases, and the performance improvement is expected to be realized, focusing on Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) . (3) In the future, with the further enhancement of personnel mobility, the continuous repair of offline consumption scenes such as tourism and dinner, the catering industry is expected to recover, and the related condiments, beer, quick-frozen food, leisure brine products, baking and other public foods are expected to benefit from the improvement of demand. Among them, the beer industry has a clearer high-end long-term logic. It recommends Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) , and pays attention to Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) , Juewei Food Co.Ltd(603517) .
Risk warning: the epidemic control is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; The downward pressure on the macro economy has increased; Food safety risks.
