Event: on February 14, the passenger car Federation released the production and sales data of passenger cars in January: the wholesale sales volume was 2.172 million, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a month on month decrease of 8.2%; Retail sales volume was 2.092 million units, down 4.4% year-on-year and 0.6% month on month; The production of passenger cars was 2.059 million, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4% and a month on month decrease of 16.5%.
In January, the wholesale sales of passenger cars increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and the sales performance was strong after excluding the influence of the Spring Festival. In January, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 2.172 million, with a year-on-year increase of 6.8% and a month on month decrease of 8.2%. In January, the retail sales volume of passenger cars was 2.092 million, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4% and a month on month decrease of 0.6%. The loss of 3-5 days in January due to the Spring Festival is estimated to bring about a loss of about 15% of production and sales volume. The real wholesale and retail sales volume converted by 15% is strong. The retail end sold 940000 independent brands, with a year-on-year increase of 11% and a month on month increase of 1%; The independent share reached 45.5%, increased by 6.4pct year-on-year, and increased by 4.5pct compared with the share in 2021. As the increment of production and sales in Tianjin and other mega cities was restrained by the local epidemic, the retail sales of mainstream joint venture brands was 860000, down 17% year-on-year and 7% month on month. Among them, the American market share reached 8.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2pct; The Japanese market share reached 19.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2pct; Germany’s share was 23.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3 PCT; The share of legal system increased by 0.1pct. In January, 290000 luxury cars were retailed, with a year-on-year decrease of 5% and a month on month increase of 18%. The demand for high-end replacement continued to be strong.
The core shortage was gradually alleviated, and the production of passenger cars increased by 10.4% year-on-year in January. With the gradual relief of the lack of core, 2.059 million passenger cars were produced in January, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4%; Affected by the early shutdown of production before the festival, production decreased by 16.5% month on month in January. Among them, the production of independent brands increased by 17% year-on-year and decreased by 14% month on month; Luxury brand production increased by 16% year-on-year and decreased by 12% month on month; The production of joint venture brands increased by 2% year-on-year and decreased by 20% month on month.
In January, the wholesale sales volume of new energy maintained a high growth, and the penetration rate of new energy was 19%. In January, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 412000, with a year-on-year increase of 141.4% and a month on month decrease of 18.5%, which is consistent with the characteristics of January 2021. Among them, the sales of pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles were 333000 and 79000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 130.4% and 201.1% respectively. The top 10 car enterprises with wholesale sales volume are Byd Company Limited(002594) 93101, Tesla 59845, SAIC GM Wuling 40007, Chery 21179, Geely 17036, GAC AIAN 16031, SAIC 14414 passenger cars, Great Wall 13781, Xiaopeng 12922 and ideal 12268. In January, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers was 19.0%, which was 10.6pct higher than the penetration rate of 8.4% in January 2021. Among them, the penetration rate of independent new energy is 32.0%; Luxury brand new energy penetration rate 22.9%; The penetration rate of mainstream joint venture new energy is only 2.7%.
It is expected that the traditional vehicle and new energy vehicle industries will improve in an all-round way in 2022. In terms of new energy vehicles, due to the price increase of some models caused by the decline of subsidies and the rise of raw material prices, orders are expected to be slightly affected in the short term. With the recovery of price acceptance of new energy vehicles after the festival, combined with the continued strong terminal demand and abundant unsold orders, the annual sales volume is expected to maintain a high growth. In terms of traditional cars, with the continuous improvement of chip shortage, the orders stored in the early stage are expected to speed up delivery; With the launch of new products by auto enterprises, the demand will be released, and the traditional passenger cars are expected to be significantly improved in 2022.
Focus on recommending high-quality independent vehicle and parts enterprises. Among the whole vehicle enterprises, high-quality industry leaders are mainly recommended: Byd Company Limited(002594) (E platform 3.0, DMI models with the same force), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) (accelerated expansion of new energy vehicles, upward bottom of fuel vehicles, and significant performance flexibility contributed by the joint venture), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (fuel, hybrid and pure electricity usher in a strong product cycle), Xiaopeng automobile (leading in product intelligence and gradually increasing volume); Among the parts companies, Zhejiang Founder Motor Co.Ltd(002196) (expanding new forces + first-line autonomy + overseas high-quality customers), Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) (benefiting from the large number of new forces customers), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) (benefiting from the high-end of the lamp industry).
Risk tip: there is a continuous shortage of chips, the progress of new products is less than expected, and the sales volume of new models is less than expected.
