The prelude to consumer VR has been opened, investment and financing have accelerated, and ecology has gradually become. After experiencing the trough period from 2016 to 2019, the VR / AR industry will achieve steady development in 2020, and the overseas consumer VR market will be gradually opened. The path for the industry to open the flywheel may be “technological progress – hardware experience upgrading – increase in the number of users – increase in the sales of software / content manufacturers – improvement of content Ecology – increase in the number of users”. In this path, user experience is the key pain point, and the launch of subversive terminal (oculusquest2), content / application (3a masterpiece “halflife: alyx” and leisure game “beat Saber” has become the core catalyst. At present, the “flywheel” of consumer VR / AR industry has begun to rotate initially, and the shipment volume of quest2 is much higher than that of the above models. The penetration rate of steam platform VR head display has increased, but the growth rate is relatively slow. In the future, we still need to pay attention to whether the technology can be improved and integrated, so as to improve the content ecology and upgrade the user experience.
Behind the accelerated development of industry is the ecological layout of large scientific and technological factories, with product power content ecology as the core competitive element. The hardware side is an ecological entrance, and the leading manufacturers include: (1) Internet manufacturers: the platform side has the advantages of user ecology, and mostly enter the hardware market through investment and M & A, including meta (oculus accounts for 75%, realitylab’s annual revenue of US $2.274 billion in 21 years), byte beat (Pico’s top 3 market share in China), valve (steamvr platform + halflife: alyx content advantage) Iqiyi (film and television resources + hardware, China’s top 5 market share). (2) Consumer electronics manufacturers: their main products are interconnected with VR head display in the industrial chain and have the ecological advantages of end users, including host manufacturers Sony (PSVR’s global market share is top 3), htcvive (commercial pcvr’s leading), Huawei (lightweight VR split head display), apple (deep cultivation of underlying technology, VraR head display is under research). Hardware manufacturers combine their own advantages and focus on the layout of the whole industrial chain of “bottom technology – terminal equipment – Software – content application”. At present, the industry concentration is high. For consumer VR all-in-one machines, cost-effective devices open the market, and the content ecology of distribution platform has become the key to manufacturer differentiation.
As the next generation of interactive terminal, the application scenario space is broad. From the perspective of application scenarios (games), user groups (hard core technology players) and modes (one-time purchase) at the current stage, VR is similar to host games. Newzoo disclosed that there are 250 million host players worldwide, and steamvr is expected to live about 2.4 million people per month. Even considering the all-in-one machine user group, VR game users still have a large penetration space. However, different from the host, VR has a broader application space. With the gradual lightweight development of hardware, multiple application scenarios (social networking, live broadcasting, film, education, office, etc.) will gradually stimulate vitality and comprehensively integrate the original Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) business model and life scenes. In the long run, it is expected to become the next generation of interactive terminal and the access port of meta universe. China’s C-end market has not been opened yet, and large factories take the lead to usher in development opportunities. Compared with all links of the industrial chain, Chinese manufacturers have shown a trend of technology catch-up at the level of technology and equipment; However, there is still a big gap in the content, and there is a lack of local VR application distribution channels, operators and R & D providers, resulting in the low quality and quantity of medium and strong interactive content on the all-in-one distribution platform. Due to the current low penetration rate of hardware, VR content end practitioners cannot obtain revenue from consumers to form a positive cycle, so the subsidy investment of large hardware manufacturers is particularly important. At present, China’s industrial investment and financing is accelerating, and the policy environment is transitioning from “technical layout” to “commercial landing”. At the same time, byteco acquired pico or benchmarked meta to become a leader in China’s VR industry; Iqiyi launched the latest dreamvr all-in-one machine (1999 yuan), with a cost performance or higher than quest2. China’s consumer grade VR ecology is expected to accelerate its development. With the improvement of user penetration, high-quality content developers in the media field are expected to usher in new development opportunities.
Investment suggestion: at present, the flywheel of consumer VR / AR industry has begun to rotate initially, and the upgrading of all links of the industrial chain drives the improvement of user penetration. In the future, the birth of phenomenal terminal equipment and content applications will also bring strong catalysis to the sector. For the media internet field, high-quality content developers are expected to usher in new development opportunities under the change of technology. Suggestions: Tencent, Netease, iqiyi, Wuhu 37 Interactive Entertainment Network Technology Group Co.Ltd(002555) , Perfect World Co.Ltd(002624) , G-Bits Network Technology(Xiamen)Co.Ltd(603444) , Wuxi Boton Technology Co.Ltd(300031) , Guangzhou Wahlap Technology Corporation Limited(301011) , Shanghai Fengyuzhu Culture Technology Co.Ltd(603466) .
Risk warning: the development of new technology is not as expected; Policy supervision risk
