Key investment points:
The central bank released the financial statistics report in January. At the end of January, the balance of RMB loans was 196.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, a monthly statistical high. At the end of January, the balance of RMB deposits was 236.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In January, RMB deposits increased by 3.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 262.7 billion yuan year-on-year.
Household loans were weak and corporate lending increased. Household loans increased by 843 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427 billion yuan. Stimulated by the Spring Festival, household consumption momentum is still insufficient; Medium and long-term loans increased by 742.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 202.4 billion yuan. Due to the impact of the high base of commercial housing sales in January last year and the strict supervision in the early stage of real estate, the demand for house purchase of residents weakened, and the stock mortgage loans were successively put in. The growth of medium and long-term loans in the future remains to be seen. In January, new loans to enterprises (Institutions) increased by 3360 billion yuan, an increase of 2698 billion yuan month on month and 810 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, medium and long-term loans increased by 2100 billion yuan, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year. After six consecutive months of year-on-year growth, medium and long-term loans of new enterprises ushered in year-on-year positive growth and made a good start.
Corporate deposits flowed to residents and deposits from non bank institutions decreased. Household deposits increased by 5410 billion yuan; New deposits of enterprises recorded - 1400 billion yuan; New fiscal deposits recorded 584.9 billion yuan; Deposits in non bank financial institutions increased by - 183.6 billion yuan. Due to the payment of salary and welfare before the Spring Festival, the deposit is transferred from the enterprise to the individual deposit; The year-on-year decrease in new fiscal deposits indicates that increased fiscal expenditure contributes to economic growth. In addition, due to the impact of market fluctuations, the deposits of non bank financial institutions decreased. At the end of January, the difference between deposits and loans was 39.42 trillion yuan; The deposit loan ratio was 83.3%.
Investment suggestion: Based on the current market style switching, the undervalued banking sector is expected to achieve valuation repair, and the market can be expected. It is suggested to focus on banks with comprehensive business layout, stable asset quality and stronger bargaining power, which can better benefit from steady economic growth: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) . Maintain the rating of "synchronous market" in the industry.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Policy regulation exceeded expectations; Asset quality declined.
