Sumco released the fourth quarter of 2021 and the annual performance express of 2021. The company achieved an operating revenue of 335.6 billion yen in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%; In the fourth quarter, the operating revenue in a single quarter was 91.2 billion yen, an increase of 5.2% month on month. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 41.1 billion yen, a year-on-year increase of 61.2%; In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 14.2 billion yen in a single quarter, an increase of 34.0% month on month. In 2021, the volume and price of silicon wafers 300mm and 200mm and below rose simultaneously, and the performance recovered strongly.
Industry trends:
The price of silicon wafer in sumco will increase by about 10% in 2021, and the price may continue to rise. According to sumco’s disclosure, the company’s silicon wafer price increased by about 10% in 2021, and 50% of the silicon wafer sales were long orders. Downstream customers are worried about the price rise of silicon wafers, and the company’s new capacity by 2026 has been basically locked by long orders. According to the company’s expectation, the price of silicon wafer may continue to rise. From the perspective of the production and sales volume and price of silicon wafers in 2021, the output growth has made a greater contribution to the company’s performance. Due to the increase of output, the company’s polysilicon inventory has decreased significantly.
Sumco’s revenue in the first quarter of 2022 will continue to increase month on month. According to sumco’s calculation, the company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 99 billion yen in the first quarter of 2022, an increase of 30.4% year-on-year and 8.6% month on month; The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 13 billion yen, an increase of 78% year-on-year and a decrease of 8.5% month on month. The month on month decrease in net profit attributable to parent company is mainly due to the increase in cost, and the rise in unit energy and power prices is the main reason. Depreciation is expected to decrease in 2022 due to accelerated depreciation.
The demand for semiconductor silicon wafers will maintain a high growth rate in the next five years. According to sumco data, the global silicon wafer demand CAGR from 2021 to 2025 is 10.2%. Among them, smart phones and data centers are the main incremental sources of silicon wafer demand. The iteration of smart phone communication technology will bring about 1 million pieces / month of 300mm silicon wafer demand increment within five years, and the demand for 300mm silicon wafer in supercomputing field will increase from 800000 pieces / month to 1.5 million pieces / month in five years. In addition, the vigorous development of automotive chips and AI will also bring considerable incremental demand for silicon wafers.
After the second half of 2023, the global silicon wafer production will increase significantly, and the silicon wafer supply will continue to fall short of demand. Recently, international silicon chip giants have revealed plans to expand production. According to the announcement, the production of 12 inch silicon chips will be expanded steadily. According to Aiji micro news, sumco and Germany Shichuang announced large-scale production expansion in the second half of 2021. After the unsuccessful acquisition of Germany Shichuang, global wafer plans to convert the funds originally planned for the acquisition into capital expenditure and operation turnover. It is estimated that the total capital expenditure from this year to 2024 will reach NT $100 billion. However, according to sumco’s estimation, the construction cycle of silicon wafer plant is about 2-3 years, and the global silicon wafer production will not increase significantly until at least the second half of 2023. Chinese silicon wafer manufacturers announced the expansion earlier than international manufacturers, but the progress of new production capacity may be similar to that of international manufacturers. It is expected that the global new production capacity will be put into operation gradually in 2025, and the situation of silicon wafer supply exceeding demand may continue in the medium and long term.
The newly added capacity of silicon wafers of 200mm and below is limited, and the supply may be more tight. Most of the world’s new silicon chip production capacity is 300mm silicon chips, and most of the new production capacity is 300mm epitaxial chips due to the more serious situation of short supply in the field of logic chips. However, the demand for 200 mm and below silicon wafers in automotive chips and other fields is also expected to grow explosively, and 300 mm silicon wafers cannot be used to replace some applications, and the supply of small-size silicon wafers may be more tight.
Investment suggestions:
The global supply of semiconductor silicon wafer continued to be tight, and the performance of international silicon wafer manufacturers recovered strongly. Mainstream manufacturers such as Xinyue chemical, sumco, global wafer and silveriag have production expansion plans, and remain optimistic about the semiconductor silicon wafer Market in the next 2-3 years.
Recommended combinations of A-share semiconductor materials: National Silicon Industry Group Co.Ltd(688126) , Crystal Clear Electronic Material Co.Ltd(300655) , Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Anji Microelectronics Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688019) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Hangzhou Lion Electronics Co.Ltd(605358) , Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) , Hubei Dinglong Co.Ltd(300054) , etc.
The prosperity of the global semiconductor equipment industry remains at an all-time high. ASML, lamresearch and Amat are generally optimistic about the industry growth and order expectations in 2022.
Recommended Tjk Machinery (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(300823) , {68686}, Kunshan Topa Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300836) , {686}, Kunshan Topa Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300836) , Kunshan Topa Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300836) , {686}, Kunshan Topa Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300836) and Kunshan Topa Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300836) respectively.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of geopolitical friction; Uncertainty of supply chain security.
