The amount of special bonds will be issued early, and the early issuance and use of special bonds are expected to promote the construction start-up end to take the lead, and the cement industry will benefit first. Regulatory requirements supplement special debt projects, focusing on the water conservancy and pipeline industry.
After the festival, the sector warmed up and significantly outperformed the market: this week, the Shenwan building materials index closed at 8072.1 points, up 7.02%, outperforming wandequan a. The industry’s average p / E ratio was 14.72 times, up 0.41 from last week. The sector rose and outperformed the market. In the last year, the building materials sector has increased by 2.01%, higher than the increase of 0.16% of Wande a.
The early judgment was gradually verified and the cement industry continued to be recommended: we continued to recommend the cement industry. The central economic work conference stated that “steady growth” and “moderately ahead of schedule infrastructure construction”, the issuance of special bonds in advance, the centralized commencement of infrastructure projects in many places this week, the acceleration of affordable housing construction and many other events confirmed our previous judgment. At present, the cement price has fallen a lot compared with the historical high in the fourth quarter of last year, but it is still higher than that in the same period of history. We believe that the accelerated decline in cement prices years ago is to better raise prices in the peak demand season. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. Clinker and P · O42 this week 5、P·S32. 5. The price of powder is 417.5, 477.9 and 471.4 yuan / ton respectively, up 25.3 yuan, 0.7 yuan and 1.4 yuan respectively compared with that before the festival. The inflection point of price has been found and the toughness is strong. The mill operating rate and clinker storage ratio were 7.2% and 46.8% respectively, which decreased by 9.7% and 5.9% respectively compared with that before the festival. With the arrival of the peak construction season in spring, the cement price may exceed the expected performance.
Opportunities for continuous recommendation of pipe industry: 1 The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. Many places take urban pipe gallery, Anlan project and water conservancy construction as the key direction of infrastructure construction; 2. The main raw materials PVC, PE and PPR have reached the inflection point and entered the downstream channel; 3. Several rounds of price increases in the early stage have been basically implemented, and the profitability is expected to be improved; 4. There was a lot of decline in the early stage and the current valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the bottom-up logic of the industry and focus on the b-end leader Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) .
Glass: the price is stable and rising, and the middle and lower reaches have high enthusiasm for hoarding goods before the Spring Festival: the price of flat glass this week is 110.8 yuan, up 3.6 yuan from last week; The inventory days were 14.3 days, up 2.7 days from last week. It is rare this week that the price and inventory change in the same direction, and the rapid rise of soda ash price is the main reason. In the early stage after the festival, China’s float glass market has a good demand for goods preparation, and it just needs to recover slowly. After the festival, the processing plants prepared goods intensively and the traders continued to take the goods, and the production and sales of float factories in most regions quickly returned to a large-scale state. At present, the construction of processing plants is still limited, and most processing plants will resume construction on October 15. The short-term market demand for goods preparation can still be continued, focusing on the change of orders of processing plants.
Key recommendation
It is recommended to invest in the relevant cement, waterproof early cycle and pipe sectors with the benefit of financial advance and special bonds. The special bond investment focuses on the construction of water conservancy pipelines. The demand for pipes is expected to rise in 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to the upward logic of the bottom of the industry and recommend Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) . At present, the valuation of the cement sector is in a low position. It is suggested to focus on grasping the bottom layout opportunity. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) cement leader in East China, Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) improved corporate governance, and Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) industry leader. The logic of increasing the concentration of water reducing agent has been strongly confirmed, which is expected to benefit from the recovery of infrastructure construction. It is recommended to Lets Holdings Group Co.Ltd(002398) . In addition, waterproof and concrete products also deserve attention.
Main risks of rating
Risk tip: the demand for glass fiber is less than expected, and the pace of production capacity is accelerated; Industry policy risk; Rising prices of raw materials; Epidemic disturbance
