Conclusion of this report: the high outlook of CXO industry continues, and the core companies gradually enter the value range
There is no inflection point change in the prosperity of the industry: during the Spring Festival, we analyzed the prosperity index of global R & D expenditure (the investment and financing of American pevc and the R & D investment of multinational pharmaceutical enterprises in 2021) and the prosperity index of China’s R & D expenditure (the accepted varieties of innovative drugs ind, the investment and financing of China’s primary level, etc.), In addition, considering that the “engineer bonus” & “cost advantage” of China’s CXO supply chain has not changed, we maintain our early judgment on the high outlook of China’s CXO.
CXO has continued the trend of rapid growth in 21 years. Considering that CXO positions are still at a high level, we judge that there will be a differentiated market in 22 years. The performance forecast of CXO company disclosed in January 22 continued the trend of rapid growth, that is, the total operating revenue of core companies increased by more than 40% year-on-year in 2021, and gradually entered a relatively reasonable valuation range considering that the PE valuation level of some companies in 22 years was in the range of 30-40 times; In addition, we tracked the position of public fund CXO. According to the combing, the pharmaceutical positions of CXO in pharmaceutical funds and non pharmaceutical funds were 58.3% and 32.8% respectively, showing a slight decrease compared with Q3, but the overall level is still high. The high position level in the short term will have a certain impact on the stock price, and the probability will show a certain differentiation market.
Core view: considering the continuous catalysis of covid-19 cdmo supply chain, the continuous realization of performance in the first half of 2022 and the catalysis of related events, and considering that most of the core CXO company’s valuation in 2022 is in the absolute valuation cost performance range of less than 40 times, as well as considering the high position, we generally judge that there will be a relatively differentiated market in the whole year of 22, especially in individual stocks, We continue to recommend Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Beijing Sun-Novo Pharmaceutical Research Co.Ltd(688621) with valuation and cost performance & high growth rate.
Risk tip: the prosperity of innovative drug R & D industry has declined; Covid-19 epidemic progress is uncertain; The overseas M & A and business expansion of related companies are uncertain; Follow up us supply chain security assessment risk; Risk of loss of core management and core technical personnel.
