Key investment points:
In terms of resources, ore is the main body of supply and salt lake is the main body of reserves, which will be mainly developed
The global lithium resource reserves are mainly salt lake brine, mainly concentrated in the lithium triangle of South America; The supply is dominated by Australian ore lithium; China is rich in resources but poor in endowment. At present, the global lithium industry is limited by the high concentration of resource supply in Australia. With the increasing expansion of lithium demand, salt lake brine lithium resources will be mainly developed under the strategic needs of diversified types and supply guarantee.
In terms of technology, there is little room for progress in lithium extraction from ore, and lithium extraction from Salt Lake ushers in an inflection point
In the process of lithium extraction, spodumene has little room for short-term progress, and lepidolite will supplement the supply increment; Lithium extraction from salt lakes is becoming mature; Lithium clay has good development prospects. China's salt lake lithium extraction process has been continuously optimized, and the cost has been reduced, which has economic value, but the current output scale is still small and the utilization rate is insufficient. We believe that under the current general trend of new energy, national policies, high industry prosperity and technological process optimization will jointly promote the release of lithium extraction capacity in China's salt lakes.
Lithium is a cyclical industry with high growth, high voice and in a period of rapid growth
Lithium industry has the characteristics of typical industrial cycle, but it is in the super cycle of new energy revolution. Driven by the outbreak of new energy vehicles, lithium has entered a rapid growth period. In terms of market structure, there is a substantial shortage of lithium ore at present. We judge that the voice is at the mine end and processing end.
The macro influence is relatively weak, the policy certainty is strong, the barriers are high, and sodium has a certain threat
In terms of macro influence, the influence of macro factors on lithium is weaker than that of base metals; In terms of policy, lithium as a key raw material for new energy vehicles has strong certainty; In terms of industry barriers, there are important resource barriers, high capital barriers, high exit barriers, certain design and R & D barriers and certain product certification barriers; As for alternative products, with the continuous improvement of technical performance, sodium ion batteries are expected to pose a certain threat in the future.
It is expected that the supply and demand will continue to be tight from 2021 to 2023, and the lithium price center will continue to rise
We predict that the supply-demand difference between 2021 and 2023 will be - 15.1 / - 9.9 / - 34000 tons of LCE respectively. There is a substantial shortage of lithium raw materials. At the same time, it is estimated that the downstream has a good acceptance of the price increase. It is expected that the price center will continue to rise in 2022 / 2023, and the industry profit will be guaranteed.
Investment strategy and recommended targets
Enterprises integrating resource processing will have core advantages. 1. Due to the increasing demand of lithium resources in the upstream industry, the demand for lithium resources is increasing steadily due to the increasing demand of lithium resources in the upstream industry; 2. Through the integration of resource processing, the supply and quality of raw materials can be guaranteed in high boom times, and the cost can be reduced with low-cost raw materials in low boom times, so as to grasp the long-term advantage. It is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460), Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) (002497), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) (002466), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756).
Risk tips
Lithium price fluctuation risk, lower than expected downstream demand risk, overseas lithium resource supply policy risk
