Core view
Operation analysis of transportation industry: the epidemic disturbance superimposed on the off-season of passenger transport. In December, the CTSI index was - 5.8% year-on-year, and the high boom logic continued in the peak season of freight logistics. Railway: the railway passenger flow in December was - 20.57% year-on-year. Roads: the passenger flow of commercial roads in December was - 38% year-on-year. Waterway: high and upward trend of container freight rate. Aviation: the high boom logic of the air cargo market in December remains unchanged. Logistics: in December, the express business volume increased by 10.7% year-on-year. New business type: 681 million online car Hailing orders in December.
Dynamically grasp the dilemma reversal opportunities of aviation and other travel sectors. Globally, the impact of Omicron has been alleviated, and covid-19 specific drugs have made phased new progress. It is expected that the air passenger transport market will gradually show a trend recovery trend in 2022. First, the travel sector is still one of the industries most affected by the epidemic in 2021. The passenger volume of civil aviation and high-speed rail reached 67% and 71% before the epidemic (2019), especially the international air passenger transport was only 2% in 2019. Second, the new progress of covid-19 specific drug continues to enhance the expectation of border opening around the world. The travel sector will probably usher in a trend recovery from 2022. Third, the recovery process of China's international routes is uncertain. At present, the passenger volume of China's international routes is only 2% of that before the epidemic, basically forming a bottom. However, the recovery progress should take into account the recovery of the global epidemic and the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention strategy. We expect that the optimistic scenario assumes that it will take at least two years before the recovery of the epidemic on the international routes. Fourth, pay attention to the systematic opportunities of the aviation industry brought by the expected enhancement of the recovery of international lines in the short term, and pay attention to the leader of the subdivided air travel market in the long term. Recommend Air China Limited(601111) (601111. SH), which accounts for a large proportion of international business, and Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) (600009. SH), which relies on inbound and outbound passenger flow to carry out tax-free business. Recommend Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) (601021. SH), the leader of full-service private airlines Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) (603885. SH) and the leader of regional airlines China Express Airlines Co.Ltd(002928) (002928. SZ).
Optimistic about the new opportunities brought by the upgrading of warehousing and logistics automation under the background of steady growth. First, the epidemic accelerated the penetration of online consumption and promoted the development of intelligent and automated logistics warehousing. Second, there is potential to improve China's logistics efficiency, and there is room for the development of intelligent automatic warehousing and logistics system. Third, under the background of steady growth, intelligent automated warehousing and logistics are included in the scope of the new infrastructure, bringing long-term growth opportunities for the industrial chain. Fourth, recommend Nanjing Inform Storage Equipment (Group) Co.Ltd(603066) (603066. SH), a comprehensive intelligent warehousing solution provider with doubled capacity in 2022, JD logistics (2618. HK), a warehouse distribution integrated supply chain service provider, and Transfar Zhilian Co.Ltd(002010) (002010. SH), which has a rich highway port warehousing network.
Risk tips: risks arising from repeated covid-19 epidemic, less than expected air travel demand, sharp decline in air and sea transportation prices, less than expected cross-border logistics demand, changes in international trade situation, decline in logistics demand, changes in transportation policies and regulations, etc.
