Key investment points
January wholesale sales + 7.5%
In January, the wholesale sales volume of generalized passenger cars was 2.202 million, with a month on month ratio of + 7.5% / – 8.6% respectively. In January, the retail sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 2.092 million, with the same / month on month growth rates of – 4.4% / – 0.6% respectively. The overall sales volume in January was slightly higher than expected. On the one hand, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the production and sales were at a semi standstill on January 26, with a relative loss of 3-5 days of sales; On the other hand, in January, due to the suspension of the epidemic and sealing control measures in Tianjin and other places, the production rhythm of some manufacturers was affected, such as FAW Toyota Tianjin plant and FAW Volkswagen Tianjin plant.
New energy wholesale made a good start in January, and the penetration rate remained at a high level of 19%
In January, new energy vehicles maintained a high boom, with 412000 wholesale vehicles, with a year-on-month growth rate of 141.4% / – 18.5% and a penetration rate of 19%. From the perspective of sub enterprises, seven independent brands and four new power brands sold more than 10000 new energy wholesale vehicles in January, of which Byd Company Limited(002594) / Shangtong Wuling / Chery / Geely / GAC AIAN / SAIC independent / Great Wall sold 9.29/4.00/2.12/1.70/1.60/1.44/13800 vehicles respectively. Among the new forces, the sales volume of Tesla / Xiaopeng / ideal / Weilai in Shanghai is 59845 / 12922 / 12268 / 9652 respectively, and the sales volume of Hezhong / Zero run in the second tier new forces is 11009 / 8085 respectively. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, North South Volkswagen New Energy sold 13661 vehicles in January, accounting for 59% of the mainstream joint venture new energy.
Independent share continues to increase
In terms of structure, the retail sales volume of luxury brands in January was 290000, a year-on-year decrease of 5%; Mainstream joint venture brands retail 860000 vehicles, with a year-on-year decrease of 17%, of which the share of Japanese brands is 19.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.2pct, the share of German brands is 23.5%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.3pct, and the share of American brands is 8.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2pct. The retail sales volume of independent brands was 940000, with a year-on-year increase of 11%, a month on month increase of 1%, a market share of 45.5%, a year-on-year increase of 6.4pct, and an increase of 2.4pct compared with 44% in 2021. The performance of leading enterprises of independent brands remains strong, thanks to the significant increase in the new energy market.
Investment strategy
Under the background of chip shortage in 2021, the sales volume is under pressure, the industry inventory is at a historical low, the replenishment cycle + demand recovery, and the growth rate of passenger car sales in 2022 is expected to be more than 10%. In the field of complete vehicles, the independent rise in 2022 will continue to be deduced, which is mainly driven by the following three factors: 1) the mainstream price of pure electricity has been improved and the models have been further enriched; 2) Usher in the first year of hybrid independently and challenge the 100000-200000 fuel vehicle market; 3) With the acceleration of intelligence, the independent advantage is more obvious. We believe that the market share of new forces + Tesla + head is expected to continue to increase this year. In the field of parts and components, with the change of the pattern of downstream main engine manufacturers, the new forces and the independent market share of the head will continue to increase. The model iteration speed in the era of electric intelligence will accelerate, which will greatly improve the requirements of car enterprises for the response service efficiency of parts and components enterprises. The fixed zero adjustment relationship in the past is expected to be broken, and the domestic parts industry chain will rise with the trend, At the same time, the acceleration of electric intelligence has given birth to a large number of value-added parts and new industrial trends. We are optimistic about the rise of domestic and electric intelligence, and continue to focus on four sub areas: integrated die casting, driving intelligence, cockpit intelligence and localization of passenger car seats.
Passenger cars: focus on Byd Company Limited(002594) , Geely Automobile (H), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Xiao Peng, ideal and Wei Lai.
Parts: focus on Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) (integrated die casting), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) (brake by wire), Shanghai Yanpu Metal Products Co.Ltd(605128) and Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) (localization of passenger car seats), as well as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) and Jiangsu Xinquan Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(603179) (Tesla industrial chain). It is recommended to pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) (HUD), Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) (air suspension), Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) (lightweight), etc.
Risk tips
The sales volume of passenger cars is lower than expected; The macro-economy is less than expected; Chip supply was less than expected.
