According to the data released by the Federation of passenger cars, the wholesale sales of passenger cars in January were 2.172 million, a month on month increase of – 8.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%, and a year-on-year increase of + 35.8% compared with January of 20 years; The retail sales volume was 2.092 million units, with a month on month ratio of – 0.6%, a year-on-year ratio of – 4.4%, and a year-on-year increase of + 21.7%.
Chip supply continued to improve and monthly sales continued to pick up. Since 21q4, the chip supply has gradually improved, driving the production and sales of passenger cars to gradually pick up. In January, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars was 2.172 million, with a month on month increase of – 8.2%, a year-on-year increase of + 6.8%, and a year-on-year increase of + 35.8%; The retail sales volume was 2.092 million units, with a month on month ratio of – 0.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 4.4%, which was + 21.7% compared with January 20. The overall trend of retail sales in January this year was very good. By brand: (1) in January, 290000 luxury brand cars were retailed, with a year-on-year increase of – 5% and a month on month increase of + 18%; (2) Mainstream joint venture brands retail 860000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 17% and a month on month increase of – 7%; (3) The retail sales of independent brands reached 940000, with a year-on-year increase of + 11% and a month on month increase of + 1%. The leading enterprises of independent brands performed strongly and gained significant increment in the new energy market. The brands of traditional automobile enterprises such as Byd Company Limited(002594) and Chery showed high growth year-on-year.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles continues to increase, and the industry has entered an era of competition. According to the passenger Federation, the wholesale sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 412000 in January, a year-on-year increase of + 141.4% and a month on month increase of – 18.5%. Among them, the sales volume of pure electric vehicles was 333000, a year-on-year increase of + 130.4%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 79000, a year-on-year increase of + 202.1%. Diversified new energy passenger vehicle market, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive, consolidate the leading position; SAIC, GAC and other traditional automobile enterprises also performed relatively prominently in the new energy sector. In January, there were 11 enterprises whose wholesale sales exceeded 10000 vehicles, a significant increase of 6 over the same period, including Byd Company Limited(002594) 93000 vehicles, Tesla China 60000 vehicles, SAIC GM Wuling 40000 vehicles, Chery 21000 vehicles, Geely, GAC AIAN, SAIC passenger vehicles, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile and Nezha automobile. In January, the wholesale penetration rate of new energy vehicle manufacturers reached 19.0%, of which the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 32.0%, much higher than 2.7% of mainstream joint venture brands.
In January, the automobile consumption index fell month on month, and the inventory level of dealers rebounded. The Spring Festival holiday, epidemic prevention and control and other factors affect consumers to buy cars in stores. According to the China Automobile Circulation Association, the automobile consumption index in January was 25.4, year-on-year – 8.0% and month on month – 64.4%. With the stabilization of automobile supply, the dealer inventory early warning index in January was 58.3%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.8pct and a month on month increase of + 2.2pct. With the alleviation of the shortage of chips and the promotion activities carried out by dealers at the beginning of the year, the car market is expected to gradually pick up in the future.
Investment suggestion: with the gradual easing of chip shortage and the improvement of supply side, the automotive industry has entered the inventory adding cycle. It is suggested that the whole vehicle sector pay attention to [ Byd Company Limited(002594) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Geely Automobile, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) ] with abundant orders on hand, intelligent electric layout, strong elasticity of production and sales growth, and continuously strengthened medium and long-term competitiveness, And the head enterprise of new forces in car making [Xiaopeng automobile, ideal automobile, Weilai]. In addition, in the industry inventory stage, the demand of vehicle enterprises for parts is expected to rebound, and the prices of raw materials and sea freight have fallen at the high level of 21q4. We believe that the parts sector still has some poor expectations and performance repair space at the current time point. It is suggested to pay attention to the parts sector: (1) the fundamentals are expected to reverse upward, and [ Jiangsu Changshu Automotive Trim Group Co.Ltd(603035) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Jiangsu Pacific Precision Forging Co.Ltd(300258) ] with large performance flexibility; (2) Smart car quality track, smart cockpit [ Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Foryou Corporation(002906) ], air suspension [ Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Tianrun Industry Technology Co.Ltd(002283) ], brake by wire [ Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) ], etc; (3) [ Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (coverage of new power generation group), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Shinry Technologies Co.Ltd(300745) , Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) , Jing-Jin Electric Technologies Co.Ltd(688280) , Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (coverage of new power generation group), Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ] benefiting from the high prosperity of new energy vehicles.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry is declining, the effect of policy implementation is less than expected, and the shortage of chips is more than expected.
