\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu Boqian New Materials Stock Co.Ltd(605376) (605376)
Recommendation logic: the company’s PVD process is a global leader with high technical barriers. Nickel powder provides a basic sector for rapid growth. The expansion of products such as nano silicon powder and silver coated copper powder gradually opens up long-term space. 1) The nickel powder industry is growing rapidly. With the increasing demand of downstream MLCC, continuous high-end and the transfer of industrial chain to China, the nickel powder industry continues to grow and concentrate on the leading, and China’s leading suppliers benefit more. 2) The company’s nickel powder technology is leading, and 80nm nickel powder is supplied exclusively in the world. There is great potential to improve the demand of existing customers. After the breakthrough of classification technology, it is expected to improve product richness, customer richness and profit margin. At the same time, the recent capacity expansion + technical transformation will improve the unit yield, resulting in the improvement of production capacity and production efficiency. 3) PVD process has strong expansibility in the field of powder. At present, the company has expanded nano silicon powder and silver coated copper powder, which is expected to bring significant performance increment after the release of downstream demand.
The nickel powder industry continues to grow, and PVD method leads the future development. Three major trends of nickel powder Market: 1) MLCC demand increases, and downstream manufacturers expand production by more than 10% every year. The main increment in the future will be the upgrading of consumer electronics, the promotion of new communication technologies and the promotion of new energy vehicles. In 2025, the demand for MLCC may exceed 6.1 trillion, and the downstream manufacturers will expand their production by more than 10% every year. 2) The proportion of high-end nickel powder increased and the value increased. MLCC continues to be high-end. With the increase of the proportion of ultra-small MLCC in the future, the demand for nickel powder with smaller particle size will increase, PVD method has more potential, the value of nickel powder will increase, and the supply of nickel powder will focus on the leader of PVD method. 3) The industrial chain shifts to the mainland and domestic enterprises rise. The expansion of MLCC enterprises is mainly in the mainland. At the same time, MLCC manufacturers such as China Sanhuan and Fenghua are gradually rising, and Chinese nickel powder suppliers benefit more.
The company is a global leader in technology and has a large growth space. 1) The PVD technology of the company is the world’s leading, and 80nm nickel powder is supplied exclusively in the world. The income of nickel powder is cagr5 = 63.4%. 2) The existing customers are mainly Samsung, Taiwan series and domestic enterprises. With the strong expansion of Samsung car MLCC and the rise of domestic enterprises represented by Sanhuan, the demand of existing customers is growing rapidly. 3) At present, the company supplies finished product grading powder for products above 300nm level and semi-finished product grading powder for products above 80nm-300nm level. The company has made a breakthrough in grading powder technology recently, and has sent samples of Samsung 150nm and 180nm grading powder twice. The richness and profit margin of subsequent products are expected to be improved. In addition, as Murata and other high-end customers only accept the supply of finished grading powder, the company’s technological breakthrough in grading powder is expected to bring customer expansion. 4) Capacity expansion + technological transformation to improve unit yield and production efficiency.
Nano silicon powder and silver coated copper powder are expected to be in large quantities, with high growth in the medium and long term. The company expands nano silicon powder and silver coated copper powder based on PVD process, and the realization of new products is expected to bring performance increment. 1) The market scale of nano silicon powder is expected to be more than 10 billion. Silicon carbon negative electrode is gradually industrialized. At present, silicon oxide is closer to mass application, but the driving range is limited, and the nano silicon route has great potential. The nano silicon powder prepared by PVD method has excellent performance. At present, the key lies in waiting for the downstream to solve the expansion problem and the maturity of batch application technology. 2) The market scale of silver coated copper powder will be about 2.78 billion yuan in 2025. Hjt battery is the trend of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery in the future. At present, the cost is high, and the cost of silver paste is the core pain point. The cost reduction effect of silver coated copper replacing silver powder is obvious, and it is expected to be applied on a large scale in the future. At present, the company has sent samples to downstream customers for verification, and is expected to realize mass supply in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 240 / 4.3 / 590 million respectively, with a compound growth rate of 55.4%. As a leading nickel powder preparation Enterprise in the world, we give the company a valuation of 60 times in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 97.8 yuan / share, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips: the downstream MLCC demand may be less than expected, the proportion of a single customer may be too high, the price of raw materials may fluctuate sharply, and the application of new nano silicon powder / silver coated copper powder may be less than expected.
