\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Aladdin Biochemical Technology Co.Ltd(688179) (688179)
Performance overview: revenue and profit were slightly lower, and Q4 net interest rate improved month on month
On February 14, 2022, the company released the 2021 express, with a revenue of 288 million and yoy of 22 million in 2021 93%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 84.66 million, yoy 13.0 million 75%, net interest rate 29%, down 2.78pct year on year. Q4 income is 90.35 million, yoy 22%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 25.12 million yuan, yoy-4%, and the net interest rate was 27.80%, up 0.7pct month on month, indicating that the impact of raw material price increases, supplier rebates and other issues on the company's profitability has gradually weakened.
Revenue side: the marginal impact of ERP and inventory is weakened, and it is optimistic about the high growth under the low base in 2022
Since Q2 of 2021, the company has been affected by the shortage of ERP system and inventory, resulting in the revenue side slightly lower than expected. In the third quarterly report of 2021, we found that the company's inventory was 146 million, an increase of 17 million in a single quarter, the highest level in history, and laid a good foundation for the company's growth in 2022. The revenue end of Q4 is significantly faster than Q3, which also shows that the marginal impact of ERP system upgrading is weakened. We believe that the expansion of the company's categories and storage will accelerate in 2022. With the gradual maturity of storage operation in North China and the gradual operation of storage in South China, it is expected to usher in higher growth. At the same time, we are optimistic about the new performance increment brought by the new business of biological reagent to the company.
Profit side: the tax rate is expected to be revised in Q1 and the expense rate will increase in 2022
The profit side is slightly lower than expected due to the increase of new employee expenses, the increase of R & D expenses of new biological business, the rise of raw material prices and high-tech income tax. Among them, the high-tech certification has been publicized online and is expected to resume at the end of March 2022. If the impact of tax rate is excluded, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company in 2021 is about 93 million, yoy25% +, and the net interest rate is 32%, slightly higher than that in 2020. We believe that with the revision of tax rate, we are optimistic about the high growth of the company on the basis of the increase of expenses (management expenses and R & D expenses) in 2022.
Profit forecast and valuation
In view of the low expectation caused by the company's tax rate has not been revised and the high growth of the company's expense side, we lowered the company's profit forecast to 1.05, 1.48 and 1.94 yuan to 0.84, 1.27 and 1.71 yuan respectively from 2021 to 2023, corresponding to the closing price of PE on February 14 in 2022, which is about 52 times. We are optimistic about the high growth brought by the gradual maturity of warehousing and laying and the accelerated increase of inventory in 2022. Maintain the "overweight" rating with reference to the valuation of comparable companies and industry status.
Risk tips
Personnel mobility risk in the process of category expansion; Safety risk in logistics process; The uncertainty risk brought by the new e-commerce model to the company's brand.
