\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) January production batch achieved 111318 / 111778 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 19.35% / - 19.59% and a month on month ratio of - 31.69% / - 31.16% respectively. In terms of brands, the production batch of Haval brand achieved 69037 / 70228 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 25.94% / - 25.66% and a month on month ratio of - 27.65% / - 25.60% respectively; The production batch of wey brand was 5153 / 5098 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 12.27% / - 15.03% and a month on month ratio of - 50.31% / - 49.35% respectively; The production batch of Great Wall pickup trucks was 13349 / 12860 respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 40.88% / - 42.23% and a month on month ratio of - 45.39% / - 48.63% respectively; The production batch of Euler brand was 13105 / 13229 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 29.51% / + 28.94% and a month on month increase of - 38.55% / - 36.78% respectively; The production batch of tank brand was 10674 / 10363 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 71.14% / + 72.20% and a month on month increase of - 6.37% / - 13.34% respectively.
In January, the channel went to the library sharply, and the terminal demand performed well: in January, the overall channel went to the library sharply, mainly due to the continuous shortage of chips and the strong performance of terminal demand. According to the data of traffic compulsory insurance, the whole great wall had 112700 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of - 9.14% / - 1.91% respectively, which was better than the production batch. The shortage of chips affected by seasonal factors in January continued to lead to a downward trend in the production batch. According to the caliber of passenger cars (excluding pickups), the Great Wall wholesale sales volume in January was 99000, the export (excluding pickups export) was 1.28, and the channel inventory went to the warehouse as a whole - 26500. In terms of models, the wholesale / retail of Haval H6 in January was 35570 / 42515 vehicles respectively, the wholesale / retail of Haval big dog in January was 7826 / 10729 vehicles respectively, and the wholesale / retail of Haval divine beast in January was 10085 / 7712 vehicles respectively; The wholesale / retail sales of Euler cat in January were 9020 / 6611 vehicles respectively, and the wholesale / retail sales of tank 300 in January were 10363 / 13347 vehicles respectively. The channel inventory changes of five key models were - 6945 / - 2903 / + 2373 / + 2409 / - 2984 vehicles respectively (regardless of export, there are more actually going to the warehouse). In January, the overall wholesale of pickup trucks declined significantly, mainly focusing on Fengjun series. In 2022, Great Wall's overseas development accelerated. On January 27, it officially took over the construction of the Brazilian plant and is expected to be put into operation in 2023h2 with an annual capacity of 100000 units; With Brazil as the core and radiating Latin America, it is planned to launch 10 new electric products within three years, including 4 pure electric and 6 hybrid models. The first product will be launched in the fourth quarter of 2022, helping to further improve sales in overseas markets.
Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the enterprise end went to the warehouse slightly in January. Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) the inventory in January is - 460 (compared with December, the same below), and the inventory of Haval / wey / pickup truck / Euler / tank in January is - 1191 / + 55 / + 489 / - 124 / + 311 respectively.
Profit forecast and investment rating: optimistic about the rise of independent brands, especially Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) in this round of new car cycle. We maintain that the net profit attributable to the parent company from Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 2021 to 2023 is 6.8/11/17.1 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.73/1.19/1.85 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is 52 / 32 / 20 times. The new round of product cycle continues to be in high volume, with the fundamental performance leading the industry, optimistic about Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected.
