\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Event overview
The company released the production and sales express in January 2022: the total sales volume in January was 277000, a year-on-year increase of + 10.0%; The output in January totaled 247000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 9.2%.
Analysis and judgment:
Independent sales volume reached a new high, and the output increased significantly month on month
The company sold 277244 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.0% and a month on month increase of + 55.7%. The output was 247484 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.2% and a month on month increase of + 22.0%. At present, the company’s inventory is at a low level, and the output increased significantly in January. In contrast, the demand is more vigorous, and the inventory is still de centralized. By brand:
1) independent brands (Chongqing + Hefei core bases): the sales volume reached a new high in January, reaching 154274 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.3% and a month on month increase of + 102.3%. We judge that the improvement of chip supply mainly drives the acceleration of order delivery.
The company has independently ushered in the transformation and upgrading, and the popularity margin of popular products is upward:
① the sales volume of cs75 series reached 34000 in January, and the second generation cs75plus is equipped with 8at as standard, which has been reserved; ② Cs55 series reached 30000 vehicles in January, of which the second generation cs55plus performed strongly after it was launched in September 2021, exceeding 20000 vehicles in January; ③ The sales volume of uni series reached 12000 in January. In February, the first car uni-v of ark architecture will also open global pre-sale. While expanding the product matrix, it will drive the high-end upgrading of its own brand.
2) joint venture: Changan Ford sold 24853 vehicles in January, with a year-on-year growth of – 17.5% and a month on month growth of – 32.6%. Ford fell in January on a month on month basis. We judged that it was mainly due to the early spring festival this year, which stimulated the sales of economic vehicles, while luxury cars were slightly weaker. The joint venture is expected to improve steadily this year, and the main increment of Lincoln brand contribution is:
① Lincoln Z started pre-sale in November 2021, and the new car pricing range is 255000 ~ 342000 yuan. It is expected to make a good performance in the market competition of benchmark models such as 3-series, C-class and A4L. ② Changan Ford’s first cross-border medium-sized SUV Ford EVOS was officially launched in November 2021 at a price as low as 198800 yuan. We believe that the overall luxury configuration of Changan Ford brand is maintained, but the strategic positioning trend of more people-friendly price is becoming clearer, or it may maintain rapid growth in the Chinese market dominated by additional purchase. ③ In January, the sales volume of Chang’an Mazda reached 20000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 67.7% and a month on month increase of + 186.9%. We expect anksila to remain the main increment.
Rapid growth of new energy and acceleration of overseas output
The company’s new energy sales increased significantly. In January, the company sold 14000 independent new energy vehicles, a significant increase year-on-year. The company’s overseas layout accelerated, with overseas sales of 24000 vehicles in January. The company’s exports are mainly from South America. At present, it is accelerating the layout of the Southeast Asian market and is expected to maintain rapid growth this year.
The new energy platform accelerates the output, and avita carries high-end products
Relying on the new EPA platform and high-end CHN platform, the company plans to launch more than 20 new intelligent electric products in the next five years. New energy “Shangri La” plans to build three new special electric vehicle platforms, epa0, epa1 and epa2, covering multiple levels and multiple products such as small, compact and medium-sized. The small car a158 and compact car c385 based on this platform are expected to be listed in q2-q3. Avita 11 based on high-end CHN platform will also realize the first batch of mass production and user delivery in Q3. In addition, the company’s blue whale IDD hybrid system will also be gradually installed on existing fuel models, and the uni series will be equipped with PHEV version.
The new high-end brand avita created by Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) together with Huawei and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) was officially released in Shanghai in November 2021. At the meeting, avita’s development strategy was introduced for the first time and the brand’s first model avita 11 was unveiled. Avita emotional intelligent electric vehicle attaches great importance to the exploration of consumers’ real psychological demands and actively initiated user interaction, and actively explores the future oriented humanized travel technology brand. We believe that the intelligent relay and electric competition in the second half will greatly enhance the needs of end consumers in terms of user interaction, and avita’s high-end route has broad prospects.
Investment advice
The company’s own brand capacity is fully loaded, the scale effect is prominent, the joint venture brand benefits from the high growth of the luxury car market, the delivery of avita new cars is imminent, and the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change the company’s endogenous profit creation ability and scientific and technological growth. We maintain the forecast: it is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 102.865/114.494/125.943 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.578/56.64/6.946 billion yuan, the EPS will be 0.60/0.74/0.91 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of 12.47 yuan / share on February 14, 2022, and the PE will be 21 / 17 / 14 times, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips
The iteration of independent brand models is not as expected; Ford’s strategic adjustment is less than expected; Mazda’s integration is not as expected; Avita brand development is not as expected.
