\u3000\u3000 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) (601633)
Event: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released January sales data: 112000 units were sold in January, down 19.6% year-on-year and 31.2% month on month.
The production and marketing are limited due to the lack of core and Spring Festival factors, and the product structure is actively optimized. Affected by the early holiday of production and marketing personnel during the Spring Festival this year and the lack of cores (mainly 4WD chips) of some models, 112000 units were sold in January Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , a year-on-year decrease of 19.6% and a month on month decrease of 31.2%. By brand, 1) Haval brand sold 70228 units, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7% and a month on month decrease of 25.6%. Among them, 10085 units of Haval divine beast were sold, with a month on month increase of 49.8%. The sales volume broke 10000 in the second month of listing, becoming another popular model; Haval big dog sold 7826 units, down 39.9% month on month (chip shortage, giving priority to Haval beast); Haval H6 sold about 36000 units, down about 17% month on month. 2) Wey brand sold 5098 units, down 15.0% year-on-year and 49.3% month on month. 3) Euler brand sold 13229 units, with a year-on-year increase of 28.9% and a month on month decrease of 36.8%. Among them, Euler good cat sold 9020 units, maintaining a high level. 4) Great Wall pickup sales 12860 units, down 42.2% year on year and 48.6% month on month. Among them, 10059 guns are sold; Fengjun sells 2801 units, and the sales volume of 10000 units is affected by the shortage of 4WD chips (giving priority to the supply of Great Wall guns).
In January, overseas sales increased by 16% year-on-year, and the global layout accelerated. In January, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) 13000 sets were sold overseas, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2% and a month on month decrease of 19.1%. Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) accelerating the globalization layout: in January, it officially accepted the factory in ilase mapolis, Brazil. It is expected that 23h2 will be put into operation with an annual production capacity of 100000 units, which will radiate the whole Latin America. In the next 10 years, it will invest more than 11.5 billion yuan. It is planned to launch 4 Bev + 6 hybrid vehicles within three years, and the first product is planned to be listed in 22q4; In February, GWM brand was launched in Thailand, and it is planned to launch 9 models dominated by new energy vehicles within three years; The “4 + 4” ASEAN strategy was officially released in February: at present, it has expanded the markets of Thailand, Brunei, Laos and Myanmar, and will start the normal operation of Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore in 22 years. In terms of products, weycoffee01 and tank series models will be listed and delivered overseas in 2022; Haval, Euler and Great Wall pickup trucks will deeply cultivate advantageous markets such as Russia, Australia, South Africa, Saudi Arabia and Chile, and will continue to explore more overseas markets such as Europe and Thailand.
Open a strong product cycle and be optimistic about the rise of volume and profit in 22 years. The production and sales of haver beast continue to climb, and haver cool dog is expected to be listed in the first half of the year. The delivery of tank 500 is expected to contribute significant performance increment. Ballet cat / lightning cat / punk cat is expected to drive the ASP of Euler brand upward; Lightning cat lithium iron phosphate version and cobalt free battery Version (both supplied by honeycomb energy) have been publicized in the Ministry of industry and information technology. With the launch of latte PHEV, Yuanmeng, MPV and more new models, the production and sales scale of wey brand is expected to increase. Great Wall pickup truck sales remain high, which is expected to open up more overseas markets and contribute to the increment. The high-end brand salon machine Jialong is expected to be delivered in Q3. With the gradual easing of the lack of core and the introduction of new models with higher prices by various brands, it is expected to usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and profit in 22 years, bringing significant performance flexibility.
Investment suggestion: maintain the “Buy-A” rating, and the six-month target price is 72.0 yuan / share. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to reach 6.78 billion yuan, 11.50 billion yuan and 15.57 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to the current market value, PE is 52.7, 31.1 and 23.0 times respectively, maintaining the six-month target price of 72.0 yuan / share, corresponding to 57.8 times PE in 2022, and maintaining the “Buy-A” rating.
Risk tip: continuous shortage of chips; The sales volume of new models is lower than expected; Overseas business expansion was less than expected.
