\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) (000625)
Key investment points
Key points of announcement: Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) January output 247484 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.23% and a month on month increase of + 22.01%; Wholesale 277244 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.03% and a month on month increase of + 55.74%. Changan autonomous (Chongqing Changan + Hefei Changan) produced 138336 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 4.38% / + 51.97% respectively, and sold 154274 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of + 2.03% / + 102.28% respectively; Changan Ford produced 25717 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 9.72% / – 30.77% respectively, and sold 24853 vehicles, with a month on month ratio of – 17.48% / – 32.60% respectively.
In January, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) the overall production batch retail performance improved significantly month on month, leading the industry. 1) According to the caliber of production batch, in January 2022, the overall production batch of the passenger car industry was 2059 / 2172000 vehicles respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.4% / + 6.8% and a month on month increase of – 16.5% / – 8.2% respectively, Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) performed better than the overall industry. Changan’s independent key brands have significantly improved month on month. The monthly sales of cs75 series are 33590, with a month on month ratio of – 20.35% / + 121.53% respectively; The monthly sales of cs55 series are 30316, with a month on month ratio of + 135.65% / + 111.23% respectively; Yidong series sold 21883 vehicles in January, with a month on month ratio of – 7.03% / + 126.46% respectively; The sales volume of uni Series in January was 12407, with a month on month ratio of + 4.54% / + 70.90% respectively. 2) According to the retail caliber of traffic compulsory insurance, Chang’an independently realized 143400 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of – 5.27% and a month on month increase of + 18.85%; The inventory of the channel in the current month (excluding export) is 10900 units. After considering the overall export data of the group, the inventory of the channel in the current month is – 12900 units. From the perspective of sales volume of CST + 1.55 million / batch, the retail sales volume of CST + 1.55 million / batch increased significantly, and the retail sales volume of CST + 2.55 million / batch increased significantly compared with that of CST + 1.55 million / batch, respectively. 3) In terms of export, the overall overseas export of Chang’an is 23800 units, equivalent to 21.6% of the whole year in 2021; The sales volume of self owned brand new energy this month was 13600, and the actual delivery of 8932 terminals was up month on month.
Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) overall stock removal: according to our self built inventory system, the overall inventory of Chang’an enterprises in January was – 29760 (compared with December), and the inventory of Chang’an independent enterprises in January was – 15938 (compared with December); Changan Ford enterprise inventory + 864 vehicles in the current month (compared with December).
Profit forecast and investment rating: we maintain the forecast of Changan Automobile’s operating revenue of 1062.14/1378.66/173.574 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.6% / + 29.8% / + 25.9%, corresponding to the net profit attributable to the parent company of 4547 / 5946 / 7017 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36.8% / + 30.8% / + 18.0%, EPS of 0.60/0.78/0.92 yuan and PE valuation of 21 / 16 / 14 times. Considering that Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) will usher in a new round of improvement in future performance, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: epidemic control is lower than expected; The recovery of passenger car demand is lower than expected
