\u3000\u3000 Thinkon Semiconductor Jinzhou Corp(688233) (688233)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the restricted stock incentive plan for 2022, and the assessment target of revenue or net profit in the next three years is about 30% compound growth rate. The company plans to grant 72 incentive objects, 650000 restricted shares, accounting for about 0.41% of the company's total share capital of 160 million shares. Among them, 520000 restricted shares were granted for the first time, accounting for about 0.33% of the total share capital of the company; 130000 shares are reserved, accounting for about 0.08% of the total share capital of the company.
The equity incentive plan is fully motivated, and the three-year performance appraisal goal shows confidence. The company's incentive plan involves a total of 72 incentive objects, accounting for 34.5% of the total 209 employees of the company, mainly including directors, senior managers, core technicians and other personnel deemed necessary by the board of directors. The company plans to grant 650000 restricted shares to the incentive objects through directional issuance, with the grant price of 32.57 yuan per share. The performance assessment objective of this equity incentive plan is based on the revenue or net profit in 2021, and the growth rate of revenue or net profit in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 shall not be less than 30% / 69% / 120%. We believe that the company's equity incentive plan involves a wide range of personnel and sufficient incentives. The assessment target in the next three years is a compound growth rate of 30% of revenue or net profit, demonstrating the company's confidence in medium and long-term development.
Semiconductor equipment and materials have a high boom, and the performance forecast for 2021 has a high growth. According to semi data, the expenditure on semiconductor equipment increased by about 39% in 2021, the equipment sales volume of Tel in the first half of the year increased by 42.5% year-on-year, and the sales volume of LAM in the first three quarters increased by 45.5% year-on-year. The high sales volume of downstream equipment led to the high growth of monocrystalline silicon materials of the company. The company predicts that the annual revenue in 2021 will reach 446 million yuan to 502 million yuan, an increase of 254 to 310 million yuan over 192 million yuan in the same period in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 132.17% to 161.33%. In terms of net profit attributable to the parent company, it is expected to reach 210 million yuan to 230 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 109.42% to 129.37%, and the deduction of non net profit is expected to reach 206 million yuan to 226 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 129.46% to 151.77%.
Light doped and low defect silicon wafers are advancing steadily, and the project is expected to reach production in 2023. Based on the comprehensive consideration of project construction, equipment procurement, logistics and other aspects, the company adjusted the raised investment project to the acceptance in 2023. We believe that the time adjustment of the raised investment project does not affect the verification process of the company's lightly doped low defect silicon wafer. Once the customer's certification and evaluation is passed, the company is expected to rapidly expand its production to 150000 pieces per month, We continue to be optimistic about the company's 8-inch light doped low defect silicon wafer business, and are expected to realize domestic substitution in the future to fill the supply gap in China.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is expected that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will maintain a compound growth rate of 63.4% in the next three years. From 2021 to 2023, the EPS will be 1.52 yuan, 2.10 yuan and 2.73 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 43, 31 and 24 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the process of semiconductor localization is not as expected; The expansion of downstream etching equipment factory and wafer factory is less than expected; The certification progress of silicon electrode parts and lightly doped silicon wafers is less than expected; Exchange loss due to exchange rate fluctuation; Business risks that may be caused by dispersed equity and no actual controller.
