\u3000\u3000 Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) (601155)
Event: the company issued the operation announcement in January 2022. In January, the sales area was 797000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 57.86%; The sales amount reached 7.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.75%.
Sales fell more in the first month
The company's monthly sales amount in January 2022 was 7.862 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.75%; The sales area was 797000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 57.86%; The average selling price was 9864.49 yuan / m2, up 12.13% year-on-year from 8797.65 yuan / m2 in January last year, up 22.50% month on month from 8052.71 yuan / m2 in December last year, down 0.64% year-on-year from 9927.89 yuan / m2 in the whole year last year. The overall sales base of the company was significantly lower than that of last year due to the factors such as the Spring Festival and holidays, but the overall sales base was significantly higher than that of last year.
Rental income in most provinces was stable in January
The company achieved a total rental income of 759 million yuan in January 2022, which is 9.41% of the rental income of 8.073 billion yuan last year in 2021. We take 31 days on January lease date / 365 days a year as the benchmark for the proportion of rent in January - 8.49%. The proportion of rent realized in January 2022 to the annual rent income in 2021 is higher than the benchmark. In terms of provinces, the proportion of Jiangsu Province with the largest number of properties is 9.1%, slightly higher than the benchmark proportion. The proportion of Guangdong, Chongqing, Ningxia, Liaoning and Henan is much higher than the benchmark. The proportion of these five provinces / municipalities directly under the central government is 74.44%, 66.14%, 48.79%, 22.09% and 21.24% respectively, which is mainly related to the fact that the investment properties in these five provinces / cities are newly opened in 2021, with a low base or the main factor. The proportion of Tianjin, Shandong, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and other four provinces / cities / autonomous regions exceeded 10%, 14.44%, 14.11%, 11.86% and 10.22% respectively. The proportion is lower than the benchmark compared with seven provinces / municipalities directly under the central government, such as Qinghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shanghai and Shaanxi, but the difference is small. The specific proportions are 8.48%, 8.38%, 8.36%, 8.06%, 7.97%, 7.84% and 7.56% respectively. We believe that the proportion of rental income in most provinces in January is slightly different from the benchmark, which is mainly related to the relatively stable operation of the company's property.
The rent in East China accounts for more than half of the total
In terms of the number of properties, as of January 2022, the number of properties of the company was 126, including 37 rented properties in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui provinces: 16 and 12 respectively, accounting for 51.59%. From the perspective of the regional proportion of rental income, the proportion of rental income in East China: Central China: Southwest Region: Northwest Region: North China: South China: Northeast region is 64.47%: 9.03%: 7.29%: 6.52%: 5.12%: 5.00%: 2.57% respectively. The proportion of property quantity and rent contribution in East China are more than half, which plays a supporting role in the company's rental business.
Investment suggestion: the company's sales in the first month decreased significantly year-on-year, but the average sales price increased year-on-year and month on month. The revenue of rental business in January increased slightly compared with the average level of the whole year of 2021. Considering the decline of the overall profit margin of the industry and the slowdown of settlement speed, we lowered the company's net profit from 18.083 billion yuan and 20.631 billion yuan to 16.402 billion yuan and 18.5 billion yuan from 2021 to 2022, and the corresponding EPS was lowered from 8.00 yuan / share and 9.13 yuan / share to 7.25 yuan / share and 8.17 yuan / share, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk tips: house prices fell sharply, sales and rental were less than expected, and the macro economy was less than expected
