\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) (600073)
Event: Recently, we attended the Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) shareholders' meeting and communicated with the management.
Straighten out the internal business of each section, practice your internal skills and start again. In terms of sectors: 1) pig breeding: in 2021, the price of pigs fell sharply, and the cost rose due to environmental protection, recruitment and other requirements (about 20 yuan / kg). Combined with the high turnover rate of breeding plants, the operation of breeding sector declined. Cost control is the key in the future. If the cost is in the range of 14-20 yuan, it is expected to cope with the fluctuation of pig prices in the industry. Therefore, the breeding sector will focus on reducing costs and increasing efficiency in 2022, and some costs under the scale effect after full load operation are expected to be reduced. The early investment in environmental protection and classical swine fever is expected to be effective in 2023. 2) Guanshengyuan and big white rabbit: after the tourism is gradually restored, the sales of hand-held products pick up, and the big white rabbit IP products are constantly promoted. At present, the factory is full production. In the follow-up or promotion of new categories such as plum candy, hard candy and throat candy to achieve a comprehensive layout. 3) Canning: at present, the main consumption of canned products is in agricultural trade, wholesale and catering, and the commercial supermarket channel accounts for about 10-20%. In 2022, six new products such as one person can will be launched, which will be gradually launched in local chain supermarkets relying on 300 dealers across the country (more than 100 dealers who have signed the framework agreement and more than 150-200 who have not signed the agreement). In terms of production capacity, at present, the factory is full production. In the future, we will continue to do a good job in brand building and consumer cultivation of Merlin cans. 4) Silver fern: the beef price is at a high level. We expect the revenue of silver fern to grow better in 2021, but the logistics cost may rise in 2022 due to the expiration of the cooperation agreement. At present, C tiktok sells the venison and French lamb chops, locking the grass consumption group, establishing new channels in Jingdong, jitter and other new media, and from the B side to C to enhance gross profit. In the future, silver fern China may continue to launch its brand and do a good job in domestic sales.
Layout prefabricated vegetable sectors to form synergy with upstream aquaculture. Three subsidiaries of the company have arranged prefabricated dishes: 1) Sushi: semi-finished products such as lion's head are arranged and prepared, and sushi tableware series is launched, focusing on vacuum packaged semi-finished dishes. Both series of products are stable and continuous; 2) Lianhao: when the catering channel of Haidilao is unfavorable, it takes the initiative to transform and cooperate with the pot circle to provide hot pot steak, big knife waist slices, pickled beef and other products. Pickled vegetable fish are also sold in Jingdong and dingdong. At present, the factory is full production, with a scale of about 600 million yuan in 2021; 3) Essen: fried pork chops, cowboy bones and other products have been launched and sold in its own stores. At present, the stores have achieved profitability, and four stores have been reinstalled as a pilot, which is expected to become a scene for the collection and sale of all products of Guangming group. In the future, they will continue to be renovated and do a good job in coordination.
In 2022, the year of development management will be launched, with clear objectives and responsibilities to people, and the development of the company will usher in a new driving force. In 2019, Chairman Wu Jian, born in big white rabbit and with sales background, took office and carried out the overall reform of the company. At present, Meilin has formed a working atmosphere of helping and guiding practical work and crisis awareness, and formulated assessment standards for Chinese advanced enterprises, which are subdivided and implemented to people at all levels, so as to lay a solid foundation for revenue growth. In the future, high protein industry (meat, upstream and downstream aquaculture) will be the focus of development, and brand food (Guanshengyuan, zhengguanghe and Meilin canned food) will focus on brand construction.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 22.916/24994/25.859 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 3.47/3.71/403 billion yuan respectively. The investment rating of overweight-a is given for the first time, and the six-month target price is 8.71 yuan, which is equivalent to 22 times the dynamic P / E ratio in 2022.
Risk tips: macroeconomic and policy risks, food safety issues
