Weekly News Express
Industry news: 1) in January, the national Baijiu monthly index rose 0.48%, of which the liquor chain rose 0.39%. 2) Guizhou will ensure that the added value of the Baijiu industry will grow by more than 20% in 2022. 3) in 2021, Xishui County's Baijiu production capacity increased to 13.1 million liters. 4) the added value of Baijiu industry in Luzhou increased by 11.1% in 2021. Company news: 1) on February 10, the second round of production of Maotai liquor was officially launched; 2) From February 7, Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) · well platform series products will be suspended from delivery and order receiving; 3) Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) since the beginning of 2022, the sales volume has increased slightly compared with the same period last year.
Feedback from key companies this week
Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) : 1) worry free lifting of the ban, executives have confidence in the company. After the lifting of the ban on February 8, 2022, the willingness of directors, supervisors and senior executives to participate in the reduction of shares is not strong, and the impact of the reduction of other core backbones can be ignored. 2) The fluctuation of data is caused by logistics, and Q1 has a promising start. In late January, the delivery was blocked due to logistics factors and the epidemic situation in Jinhua and Henan. The logistics outage one week before the festival affected the delivery rhythm, not the weakening of market demand; The inventory of dealers before the festival has bottomed out. After the festival, the company has increased its delivery efforts, and the overall growth in the first quarter is guaranteed. It is expected that the revenue growth center in the first quarter can reach 25%. The company has a normal rhythm of low in the first quarter and high in the second quarter. 3) In 2022, the sales target of new fruit and vegetable drinks, milk coffee, coconut milk and other products is expected to at least double, and the national channel expansion will usher in high growth. 4) 2022 is the year of Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) development. We believe that it is in a high growth stage, with a high probability of more than 30% of both revenue and profit.
Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) : the progress of payment collection is still normal, and the probability of a good start is high. In terms of inventory, mature regions have benign inventory and high market recognition; The inventory in weak areas is relatively high and needs time to cultivate. According to channel feedback, the feedback of Spring Festival in 2022 in Sichuan is better than that in the same period last year, crystal is willing to give better feedback, the delivery pace is faster than before, and 2 / 3 of the goods have been delivered; Northeast China had a fast pace of moving sales and delivery before the year; The epidemic situation in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei in North China has a certain impact on mobile sales, but the company has considered the formulation of tasks; The growth momentum in Shandong is benign; Sales around Taihu Lake and Shanghai are also benign.
Investment view
After the festival, the liquor and Baijiu liquor in the liquor industry are better than expected, and the snack foods in the public products are better than expected. The secondary high-end stock price fluctuated sharply this week due to the doubts of some weak areas in the market, high inventory and pressure on the completion of main product channels. We believe that the current market has strict requirements for secondary high-end liquor enterprises such as shede, drunkard and Fenjiu, questioning the quality and ability to complete the task, and misleading some information is also an important factor disturbing the market. However, from the actual situation, the feedback is normal or even higher than expected, and the secondary high-end liquor enterprises have the ability to make a good start to the Spring Festival. Before the festival, we said that the real estate liquor market needs several conditions, such as the obvious increase of the flow of people returning home during the Spring Festival, the active preparation of goods by dealers, and the continuous cooling of the hot sauce and wine; From the feedback after the festival, due to the relaxation of personnel control, the flow of returning personnel has increased significantly. It is normal for some dealers to sell out some products. It is expected that there will be some replenishment at the end of February and early March after the festival. We believe that the significant increase of personnel flow is an important reason for the good feedback of real estate wine. The product structure of wine enterprises has been upgraded smoothly, such as Gu 20, Dongzang series, M6 + M3 crystal bottle, four open and other rated prices are relatively strong, and the decline is not obvious, which is also a good signal.
In terms of mass products, the increase in sales of leisure food due to the return flow of people during the Spring Festival, and the feedback from offline channels such as Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) is good. It is suggested to focus on the opportunities of leisure food.
Overall, we recommend the three Baijiu ( Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) ), high-end Three Musketeers ( Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) ), real estate four gentlemen ( Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) , Anhui Yingjia Distillery Co.Ltd(603198) , Jiangsu King'S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) ). In the popular products sector, we mainly recommend Yanker Shop Food Co.Ltd(002847) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Zhe Jiang Li Zi Yuan Food Co.Ltd(605337) and continue to pay attention to the beer sector and condiment sector. Give the food and beverage industry an "overweight" rating.
Risk tips
Epidemic fluctuation risk and macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Recommend the risk that the company's performance is less than expected and the risk of industry competition; Food safety risks; Risk of changes in industrial policies; Consumption tax or production risk; Raw material price fluctuation risk.
