Key investment points
Electrical equipment 10266 fell 8.18%, weaker than the market. This week (February 7-february 11, the same below), power generation and power grid rose 7.03%, nuclear power rose 1.74%, industrial control automation rose 0%, lithium battery fell 1.85%, new energy vehicles fell 2.24%, wind power fell 4.21%, photovoltaic fell 6.79% and power generation equipment fell 8.41%. The top five gainers are st Tiancheng, * ST jiangte, Changsha Dialine New Material Sci.&Tech.Co.Ltd(300700) , Dalian Insulator Group Co.Ltd(002606) , Spic Dongfang Energy Corporation(000958) ; The top five declines were Northeast Electric Development Company Limited(000585) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) .
Industry level: electric vehicles: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) response to consulting American institutions about the possibility of sanctions: Rumors: false information; The first batch of recommended catalogue in 2022: supporting lithium iron batteries for passenger cars account for 55%; Tesla‘s US factory was approved to resume work, and the shortage of parts in Shanghai factory is expected to be alleviated; LG new energy plans to increase the production capacity of factories in Michigan by 5 times; GM plans to significantly increase the output of electric SUVs and trucks, and supply 400000 vehicles in 22-23 years, an increase of 6 times compared with the original plan; The production base of Lishen battery Chuzhou 36gwh project started laying the foundation; Metal cobalt is quoted at 518000 yuan / ton, this week + 3.0%, nickel at 176600 yuan / ton, this week + 4.1%, manganese at 40400 yuan / ton, this week – 2.7%, metal lithium at 2 million yuan / ton, this week + 1.5%, battery grade lithium carbonate at 395400 yuan / ton, this week + 3.9%, lithium hydroxide at 321900 yuan / ton, this week + 4.9%, industrial grade DMC dimethyl carbonate at 9000 yuan / ton, this week – 15.9%, The quotation of EC vinyl carbonate is 17300 yuan / ton, which is – 11.5% this week. The quotation of ternary 523 precursor is 138500 yuan / ton, which is + 4.1% this week. The quotation of ternary 523 cathode is 317000 yuan / ton, which is + 9.3% this week. The quotation of ternary 622 cathode is 312000 yuan / ton, which is + 8.7% this week. The quotation of ternary 811 cathode is 324500 yuan / ton, which is + 6.6% this week. The quotation of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 137000 yuan / ton, which is + 7.9% this week. New energy: the national development and Reform Commission issued opinions on improving the system, mechanism and policy measures of green and low-carbon energy transformation; Energy Administration: in 2021, the national photovoltaic power generation capacity was 325.9 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 25.1%; The United States announced the extension of global safeguards for photovoltaic products; National Development and Reform Commission: focusing on deserts and Gobi, accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power generation bases; Two departments: strengthen the top-level design of new power system, study and formulate relevant standards of new power system; China gas and the state power investment signed strategic cooperation on the development of the whole county and household photovoltaic; This week’s monocrystalline silicon material is 245 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 1.24%; The quotation of single crystal silicon wafer 166 / 182 / 210mm is 5.33/6.43/8.55 yuan / piece, with a month on month ratio of + 0.57% / + 0.47% / + 2.40%; The quotation of single crystal perc166 battery is 1.09 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; The quotation of single crystal perc components was 1.83 yuan / W, unchanged month on month; Glass 3.2mm/2.0mm, quotation 26 / 20 yuan / flat. Industrial Control & Power Grid: industrial control shipment data in January: servo Yaskawa shipped 200 million yuan, a year-on-year – 29%, Panasonic 170 million yuan, a year-on-year-11%, delta 165 million yuan, a year-on-year-18%, Hechuan 50 million yuan, a year-on-year-21%; Low voltage frequency conversion abb2 800 million yuan, flat year-on-year, 106 million yuan in Yaskawa, a year-on-year increase of + 8%, and 106 million yuan in medium and large PLC Schneider, a year-on-year increase of + 8%.
Company level: Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) : sign the strategic cooperation framework agreement with Huizhou Municipal People’s government, and plan to invest no less than 2 billion to help the development of Huizhou new energy battery industry cluster. Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) : the project with an annual output of 20000 tons of electrolyte basic materials and 5800 tons of new lithium electrolyte completed the installation of production equipment and obtained the trial production license at the end of December 2021. Among them, the electrolyte basic material device with an annual output of 20000 tons and the lifsi device with an annual output of 4000 tons have reached a stable production state. Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) : the Management Committee of Yuxi high tech Zone and Hongta plastic signed an investment agreement on the land for the new 20 mu project of BOPP film project. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) : it plans to jointly increase the capital of Hunan Yacheng with the controlling shareholder Huayou holdings. Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) plans to increase capital by 120 million yuan and hold 12.13% equity of Hunan Yacheng. The raised funds will be used for iron phosphate production expansion projects and other purposes approved by the board of directors of the company. Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) : the application for issuance of convertible bonds was approved, and the fund-raising was no more than 897 million yuan for the construction of distributed photovoltaic power stations. The subscription date was February 10. Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) : won the bid for five packages of the second batch of framework bidding projects for metering products of China Southern Power Grid Corporation in 2021, including single-phase smart watt hour meter, three-phase smart watt hour meter, low-voltage centralized reading system equipment, load management terminal and distribution transformer monitoring and metering terminal, with a bid price of about 173 million yuan. Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) : it is proposed to invest 3.455 billion yuan to expand the integrated production capacity, including Vietnam 2.5gw crystal drawing and slicing project, Ningjin 1.3gw high-efficiency battery project, Yiwu 10GW module auxiliary material supporting project and Tuquan 200MW photovoltaic energy storage and power generation project.
Investment strategy: in January, the sales volume of China’s mainstream electric vehicle enterprises greatly exceeded expectations, with only a slight decline month on month. We expect that the overall sales volume in January will exceed 450000 vehicles, with a month on month decline of 15%, greatly exceeding the previous expectation of about 30%; The impulse at the end of the quarter fell in Europe and the United States, of which 127000 vehicles were sold in ten European countries, with a month on month ratio of + 33% / – 48%, and 62000 vehicles in the United States, with a month on month ratio of + 75% / – 18%, in line with expectations. We predict that the sales volume in China will exceed 6 million units (including exports), that in Europe will exceed 2.8 million units, that in the United States will exceed 1.3 million units, and that in the world will exceed 10 million units, an increase of 60% +. From the perspective of supply and demand pattern, lithium, graphitization, PVDF, diaphragm and copper foil continue to be tense. We expect it to last until 2022. In 2022, there is still a double increase in volume and profit; The price rise of battery link fell to the ground, with an increase of 5-10%. Some car enterprises have followed the price rise, and new orders are strong. In the short term, Q1 production is flat month on month (MOM) and not light in the off-season, while the valuation of the electric vehicle sector is callback to 20-40x, which is at the lower limit of historical valuation. The Q4 performance of the leading companies exceeds market expectations. We are strongly optimistic about the oversold and reversal of the electric vehicle sector and strongly promote the leaders in all links. The importance and commitment of China, Europe and the United States to carbon emission will speed up the process of photovoltaic from auxiliary energy to main energy. At the end of last year, the silicon material was slightly loose, and the components fell slightly to 1.8-1.9 yuan / watt. After that, there is a strong demand for photovoltaic installation, and the household continues to be hot. At the same time, the time-of-use electricity price policy promotes the development of industrial and commercial distribution and energy storage. In the great year of photovoltaic installation in 22 years, the installed capacity is expected to be 150-155gw in 21 years, an increase of 20% at the same time, It is expected to exceed 45% + growth in 22 years. The Q1 leader is in full production and the off-season is not light. It is optimistic about the growth of high-quality photovoltaic leaders. The domestic substitution of industrial control continued, and the prosperity began to pick up from December last year. In January, the leading orders were further restored, and the leading strong was always strong. It is suggested to focus on the layout. The new power system brings structural opportunities. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we expect the total investment in power grid to increase steadily. The focus will be on grid construction, intelligent distribution network, digitization, pumped storage and other directions, which will bring new opportunities.
After the rush installation of wind power, the cost has decreased significantly, and the export has begun to be competitive. It is expected to develop steadily under the background of carbon neutrality in China.
Key recommended targets: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (global leader in power battery performance greatly exceeds expectations, high-quality customers, leading technology and cost advantages), Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) (power lithium battery gradually becomes the leader and electronic cigarette provides support), Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) (high nickel cathode leader, high capacity release and high increase period), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) (global leader in wet diaphragm, strong profitability) Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) (global leader of negative electrode and diaphragm coating), Shenzhen Inovance Technology Co.Ltd(300124) (gradual recovery of general automation demand and comprehensive breakthrough of powertrain), Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) (supermarket expectation and profit inflection point of iron and lithium demand), Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) (Electrolyte & hexafluoride leader and new lithium salt leader), Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) (global leader of inverter and prospective layout of energy storage) Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) (global leader in structural parts, high-quality customers and high growth period), Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) (leader in carbon nanotube conductive agent, entering the upper volume stage), Byd Company Limited(002594) (sales of electric vehicles continue to exceed market expectations and external supply of blade batteries accelerates), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (leader in cobalt salt and positive prepolymer), Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) (leader in series inverter, high performance growth) Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) (global leader of ternary prepolymer, high-quality and rapid production expansion of customers), Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) (global leader of monocrystalline silicon wafer and components, strong comprehensive strength), Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) (high growth of distributed inverter, power of energy storage business), Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) (leader of integrated components, elasticity of profit in 2022), Hangzhou First Applied Material Co.Ltd(603806) (leader of EVA and Poe, amount of photosensitive dry film) Hemai Co., Ltd. (the shipment of micro reverse faucet is expected to double continuously, and the U.S. market begins to increase in volume), Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) (the global leader of new and old relays and the expectation of supermarkets in 2021), Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) (electrolyte faucet and fluorochemical exceed the market expectation), Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) (210 component faucet and household system), Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) (silicon and perc battery faucet, and the profit exceeds the market expectation) Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) (secondary equipment leader, benefit from power Internet of things), Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , No. 9 company, China Leadshine Technology Co.Ltd(002979) , Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) , Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) , Arctech Solar Holding Co.Ltd(688408) . It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) , beiteri, Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) .
Risk tip: the investment growth rate is declining, the policy is lower than the market expectation, and the price competition is higher than the market expectation
