Core recommendation
Key points of basic chemical industry
Core assets ( Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) );
Titanium dioxide ( Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) ), carbon fiber ( Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) ), spandex and polyurethane ( Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) ), food additives ( Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) ), zeolite / OLED ( Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) ), pesticides ( Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co.Ltd(603599) ), compound fertilizer ( Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) ), etc.
Key points of petrochemical industry
OPEC + joint production reduction forms the bottom support of oil price, but we still need to pay attention to the impact of non OPEC production (Canadian heavy oil, Brazil and Central Asia), global macroeconomic downside risk and further fermentation of trade risk on oil price. Recommend excellent private refining enterprises ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , satellite chemistry, Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ) to accelerate the integrated construction of polyester industrial chain and enter large-scale refining and layout C2 / C3 light hydrocarbon cracking; Follow Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) . Weekly industry update
This week, the price index of chemical products rose, the oil price of core raw materials rose, LPG gas rose, LNG gas rose and coal price rose; The prices of C3, C4, aromatics, chemical fiber, chlor alkali, chemical fertilizer, polyurethane, rubber, plastics and fluorochemical products increased.
This week, China's chemical price index CCPI + 2.4%; The price of core raw materials is oil distribution + 1.3%, imported LPG + 1.4%, domestic LNG + 62.2%, bituminous coal + 3.7%.
On the raw material side, the prices of C3, C4 and aromatics increased; On the product side, the prices of chemical fiber, chlor alkali, chemical fertilizer, polyurethane, rubber, plastics and fluorine chemical products increased, while the prices of pesticides and vitamins decreased.
Oil prices rose this week, Iran's lifting of the ban is difficult to complete in the short term, and the winter atmosphere in the northern hemisphere is still. This week, the settlement price of oil distribution rose from 93.3 to 94.4 US dollars / barrel (up 1.3%), and the settlement price of American oil rose from 92.3 to 93.1 US dollars / barrel (up 0.9%); US commercial crude oil inventories reached 410 million barrels (Mom - 1.1%), and 516 US crude oil wells were drilled (mom + 3.8%).
On the supply side, according to Longzhong information, OPEC + continues to maintain the established output scheme, the market is concerned about the potential space for additional supply after the turnaround of the Iranian problem, and the easing of the situation in Ukraine. On the demand side, according to Longzhong information, the impact of the epidemic on demand continues to weaken, and the winter atmosphere in the northern hemisphere is still good for demand. From the perspective of policy, according to Longzhong information, although the Fed is expected to raise interest rates, it is difficult to land in the short term. The recent narrow fluctuation of the US dollar has a limited impact on oil prices. In terms of geopolitics, according to Longzhong information, France and Russia held talks and mediated the Ukrainian issue. Putin also expressed the hope that the Ukrainian dispute would be resolved by peaceful means. It is difficult to provoke war.
Natural gas price tracking:
Price tracking: most European and American natural gas futures fell this week, with NBP - 17.13%, TTF - 15.30%, HH - 30.62% and AECO + 16.17%. In terms of spot, it goes in the same direction as futures, and HH spot is - 16.32% month on month; AECO spot in Canada was - 17.52% month on month, while TTF spot in Europe was - 13.33% month on month. In terms of price difference, the average spot arrival price of LNG in Northeast Asia was 8340 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.72%, the average sales price at the terminal was 5010 yuan / ton, and the price difference was + 471 yuan / ton (+ 10.30%). Inventory tracking: according to EIA data, as of February 4, the inventory of natural gas in the United States was 2101 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of - 222 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of - 9.56%, year-on-year ratio of - 17.30%), still lower than the five-year average. According to the data of the European Natural Gas Infrastructure Association, as of February 4, the European natural gas inventory was 1383.6 billion cubic feet, with a month on month ratio of - 105 billion cubic feet (month on month ratio of - 7.06%, year-on-year ratio of - 27.04%). China price: this week, the shipment of LNG from China's main producing areas rebounded, and the price reversed rapidly. As of February 10, the average price of LNG in main producing areas was 5461 yuan / ton, compared with + 48.16% before the festival; The prices of consumption places have reversed synchronously. As of February 10, the average price of main LNG consumption places was about 5603 yuan / ton, up + 16.17% from that before the festival. The quotation of LNG terminal is 5290 yuan / ton, which is + 28.66% compared with that before the festival. View update of key chemicals:
Price rise and fall of chemicals:
The important products with the highest price increase this week are liquid chlorine + 50%, melamine + 45%, dichloromethane + 17%, NPG + 16%, butyl acrylate + 15%, soda ash (light + 14%, heavy + 10%), butadiene + 14%, maleic anhydride + 14%, acrylic acid + 14%, n-butanol + 14%, caustic soda + 14%, isobutene + 13%. The important products with the highest price decline this week are acrylamide-18%, isoprene-14%, dimethyl carbonate dmc-13%, pvdf-13%, glyphosate-8% and phosphorus trichloride-8%.
Price rise and fall of upstream chemicals of new energy:
Chemicals related to photovoltaic industry chain: industrial silicon + 1%, trichlorosilane is the same, soda ash (light + 14%, heavy + 10%), vinyl acetate + 7%, EVA (photovoltaic grade) is equal. Chemical products related to lithium battery industry chain: phosphate rock (30%) is the same, phosphoric acid is the same, lithium carbonate (industrial grade + 1%, battery grade + 1%), iron phosphate is the same, industrial monoammonium phosphate (73%) is the same, and lithium hexafluorophosphate is the same.
The downstream construction started to recover gradually. The impact of the Winter Olympic Games brought negative measures, and the price of liquid chlorine rose.
Liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 50.0% to 600 yuan / ton this week. On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, during the Spring Festival in Shandong, the downstream demand shrank due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games. In the later stage, the main downstream propylene oxide in Binzhou was suspended due to power plant failure, and the downstream construction was gradually resumed after the festival. The demand in Hebei was depressed, and the downstream delivery enthusiasm in eastern China and southern Jiangsu was not good; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, during the Spring Festival holiday in Shandong Province, chlor alkali enterprises are mostly affected by the Winter Olympics, while Hebei Province is greatly affected by the Winter Olympics, and there are also negative measures. During the holidays in the two lakes region, enterprises stop for maintenance, forming a favorable supply side.
Domestic demand has gradually recovered, the production of some units has been limited in the Winter Olympic Games, and the price of melamine has increased.
Melamine (Sichuan) rose 45.0% to 14500 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, urea (Shandong) rose 3.4% to 2730 yuan / ton this week, forming cost support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the logistics will be gradually restored after the festival, the downstream sector plants will resume operation one after another, the domestic demand will be gradually restored, and the export will still be the main support; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the operating rate of melamine has continued to decline since February, falling to 62.4% this week and -7.88pct on a week-on-week basis. Affected by the production restriction of the Winter Olympic Games, some manufacturers in Hebei, Shandong and other places shut down their devices, resulting in tight overall supply in the market.
Liquid chlorine supports the cost, and the market supply is tight, supporting the price of dichloromethane.
Dichloromethane (East China) rose 17.2% to 5800 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, liquid chlorine (Shandong) rose 50.0% to 600 yuan / ton this week, forming a strong support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the downstream demand in East China has recovered, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the construction in East China is relatively high, and the supply of goods is slightly tight. The shipment in South China is blocked due to public safety and health events, and the market supply is relatively tight.
The start-up picked up in the downstream years, and the overall supply load was not high, pushing up the price of butyl acrylate.
Butyl acrylate (East China) rose 15.1% to 17150 yuan / ton this week. On the cost side, acrylic acid (East China) rose 14.0% to 15500 yuan / ton this week, forming a strong support; On the demand side, according to Yingfu of Baichuan, the downstream demand is generally acceptable in the near future, and the overall operating rate of the downstream industry gradually rebounded after the year, forming a favorable situation; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, currently some acrylic acid and ester manufacturers rotate for maintenance, the overall load of the industry is not high, and the spot supply is small. In terms of devices, Shenyang waxed acrylic acid and ester device is shut down, Shandong Hongxin acrylic acid and ester device is shut down, Taixing Jinjiang butyl acrylate device is shut down, and Jiangmen Qianxin butyl acrylate device is shut down, Shutdown of Wanzhou Petrochemical Acrylic Acid and ester unit.
Manufacturers have sufficient orders, the Winter Olympics will affect the supply, and the price of soda ash will rise.
The price of soda ash rose this week. Soda ash (light, East China) rose 14.3% to 2400 yuan / ton, and soda ash (heavy, East China) rose 10.2% to 2700 yuan / ton. On the demand side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, the current demand side is relatively stable, and there is little change in the start-up of glass enterprises. Individual users in daily glass, pyrosulfite, bubble alkali, disodium, metallurgy, printing and dyeing, water treatment and other industries in the downstream of light alkali begin to have holidays before the festival, the goods preparation is coming to an end, and the demand is generally shown; On the supply side, according to Baichuan Yingfu, at present, soda ash manufacturers have sufficient orders. After the festival, individual enterprises in Henan, Shandong, Tianjin and other regions have reduced their production load due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the overall market supply has decreased, and the operating load has declined, which is favorable.
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates, and the downstream demand is less than expected.
