In January, the year-on-year sales volume of excavators was - 20.4%, which was in line with expectations, and the export strongly doubled
In January 2022, 15607 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of - 20.4%, slightly better than CME's previous expectation (- 26%). Among them, 8282 units were sold in China, a year-on-year increase of - 48.3%; 7325 units were exported, with a year-on-year increase of + 104.9%, maintaining a strong growth trend. The proportion of export sales in the total sales jumped to 46.9%, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9pct. Considering the recovery of overseas markets and the improvement of the global competitiveness of domestic brands, we expect the high growth momentum of subsequent exports to be sufficient to effectively smooth the cyclical fluctuations of the Chinese market.
In terms of sales volume structure in China, the sales volume of small excavation ( 28.5t) in January was 5380 / 1879 / 1023 units respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of - 42.05 / - 57.9% / - 55.45% respectively, accounting for 65.0% / 22.7% / 12.4% of the total sales volume and + 7.2 / - 5.1 / - 1.9pct year-on-year.
The issuance of special bonds was accelerated, and attention was paid to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth
In December 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of "steady growth". At the end of 2021, the issuance of special bonds was accelerated. The Ministry of Finance issued a quota of 1.46 trillion yuan of new special bonds in 2022 in advance, promoting the issuance and use of the quota in the first quarter of this year. According to the Securities Daily, as of February 8 this year, 511.4 billion yuan of new special bonds had been issued during the year, and 35% of the new special debt limit had been issued in advance. According to this progress, the limit issued in advance is expected to be issued in the first quarter of this year. The issuance of new special bonds will be accelerated to promote the physical workload of major projects. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of the construction machinery sector under the background of steady growth of infrastructure construction.
Pay attention to the electric wave of the industry in the next five years, and the rhythm is expected to exceed market expectations
Electrification can reduce the life cycle cost of construction machinery, transfer the value in the operation stage to the manufacturing end, and improve the technical level of equipment and software, which is conducive to the expansion of market scale and profit margin of the industry. Based on the advantages of saving operating costs and policy support (e.g. no on the road for excessive emissions, no traffic restrictions for green cards, tax exemption, etc.), the electrification penetration rate of construction machinery products represented by concrete mixer, muck truck, excavator and loader is expected to achieve leapfrog development in the future.
Investment advice
Recommend [ Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) ] one of the most globally competitive high-end manufacturing leaders in China, and be optimistic about the opportunities in the process of globalization. [ Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) ] crane + concrete machinery is the leader in the post cycle, and the emerging strategic business contributes to a new growth pole. [ Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) ] as the leader of truck crane, the mixed reform is expected to significantly release the performance flexibility. [ Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) ] domestic hydraulic parts are scarce, and the pump valve + non-standard force application passes through the cycle.
Risk warning: the investment in infrastructure and real estate is lower than the market expectation; Industry competition intensifies; Global trade disputes.
