The macro improvement boosted the industrial sentiment, and the steel market ushered in a good start
Although the steel market is still in the stage of demand vacuum, the macro expectation is good, promoting the industrial chain to take the initiative to raise prices, and the varieties such as thread, hot coil and medium and thick sector have generally increased by about 200 yuan compared with that before the festival. According to the rhythm of demand release in previous years, the downstream construction often does not improve significantly until after the 15th day of the first month. With the further recovery of transactions, the social inventory is expected to peak and fall around the fourth week after the Spring Festival. At this stage, the accumulated inventory of traders and steel mills is generally in line with expectations. Before the end demand is fulfilled in the peak season, the fluctuation of steel price is dominated by macro expectations. According to the latest financial data released this week, social finance increased by 6.2 trillion in January, an increase of 984.2 billion year-on-year; In January, the growth rate of social financing stock was 10.5%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous value, indicating that the steady growth is gradually being realized, and the demand for industrial metals is expected to be boosted. Based on a series of recent incentive policies, it is only a matter of time before broad money is transmitted to broad credit, and the recovery of credit will drive the repair of commodity demand, which is also the core reason for the rise of the cyclical sector. However, at the industry level, the current production restriction in Tangshan and other places is still relatively strict, so we need to be vigilant about the possibility of supply relaxation after the end of the future Winter Olympic Games. As far as the segments are concerned, we focus on the areas where supply is relaxed but the marginal certainty of demand is improved, such as the water pipe industry, which mainly benefits from Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) and the rising price of raw materials under the recovery of hot metal production, such as Hbis Resources Co.Ltd(000923) , Inner Mongolia Dazhong Mining Co.Ltd(001203) .
The high ore price fell, and the coke price is expected to be weak
(1) iron ore: the iron ore inventory in port 45 this week was 158899400 tons, up 1.6364 million tons month on month; The global shipment of iron ore was 27.253 million tons, down 1.614 million tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the shipment volume of iron ore in Australia was 14.361 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 184000 tons; Brazil’s iron ore shipments were 4.567 million tons, down 490000 tons on a weekly basis. At the same time, the molten iron output of 247 steel mills reached 2.0604 million tons this week, with a decrease of 133000 tons on a weekly basis. At present, steel mills are still accumulating storage seasonally. Under the background of superimposing Winter Olympics and winter heating, production restrictions are tightened, and the output of molten iron drops significantly after the festival. However, due to the combination of “steady growth” and relaxation of production restriction, the probability of recovery of molten iron production in the later stage is large, and the expected improvement of demand promotes the continuous rebound of ore prices. However, the continuous rise of ore prices has attracted the attention of regulatory authorities, and the short-term prices are greatly disturbed by policies; (2) Coke: affected by the downstream production restriction, the market sentiment is weak. The second round of 200 yuan / ton reduction has been gradually implemented, and the coke price is expected to operate weakly in the short term.
Plate key data tracking
Gradual recovery of demand: this week (February 7-february 11), the national construction steel trading volume was not updated, and the average before the festival was 56400 tons. According to the calculation of Mysteel data, the apparent consumption of deformed steel bars was 1.542 million tons, with a week on month increase of 2.013 million tons; The apparent consumption of hot rolled coil was 2.693 million tons, with a decrease of 452000 tons on a weekly basis;
Overall decline in supply: the national blast furnace operating rate (247) was 68.19%, with a decrease of 6.67% on a weekly basis; The capacity utilization rate of Tangshan steel plant was 52.75%, and the week on month ratio decreased by 16.96 PCT. The national weekly output of the five varieties totaled 8.704 million tons, down 240000 tons month on month;
The gross profit of thread steel continued to rise by 129.07-2.07 yuan this week; Hot rolled sector 288 yuan, up 142 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of cold rolled sheet was 57 yuan, up 133 yuan month on month; The gross profit per ton of medium and heavy sector was 143 yuan, up 148 yuan month on month.
Risk tip: terminal demand has fallen sharply, and the environmental protection production restriction policy is less than expected.
