Weekly observation: pig production capacity may usher in accelerated depolarization, and the time point of pig price reversal is expected to be advanced
In the first week after the Spring Festival holiday, pig prices ushered in a rapid decline. According to the data of China Animal Husbandry Association, as of February 11, 2022, the national average sales price of pigs was 12.18 yuan / kg, down 1.52 yuan / kg from a year ago (January 27). We believe that the rapid decline of short-term pig prices is mainly due to the jump in soybean meal prices, the rise in feed prices, the increase in breeding costs, the emotional pressure on the pressure column of short-term pigs, and then enlarge the short-term supply selling pressure in the market.
It is estimated that a 10% rise in the price of soybean meal will drive the cost of pig feed to rise by 80 yuan / ton. According to our calculation, the cost performance of large pigs with a weight of more than 130kg is significantly lost, and the loss of raw pigs is significantly enlarged. We believe that the rapid decline of pig prices after the Spring Festival is unsustainable, but the contradiction of excess supply of pigs will continue to appear before May. Under the background of low pig prices, the increase of feed costs has led to the increase of losses of raw pigs. We believe that, on the breeding side, based on the comprehensive consideration of breeding efficiency and benefits, the average weight of pigs in 2022h1 industry may tend to decline, so as to gradually alleviate the contradiction of excessive supply; On the other hand, the expansion of losses on the market of pigs will accelerate the pace of capacity removal in the industry, and the reversal node of pig prices may appear in advance.
Zhou's view: the pig cycle reversal is imminent, and the transgenic breeding policy is implemented
In 2022, the pig cycle is about to reverse, and the layout of production capacity is in the period of de industrialization. Focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) with leading breeding cost; The recovery of production indicators is accelerated, and the cost is reduced by Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , New Hope Liuhe Co.Ltd(000876) ; Cycle reversal drives Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) with excellent performance elasticity; Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) with both breeding cost and capital advantages; Relevant beneficiary object Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) .
The safety margin of the dynamic insurance sector appears, and the industry space may usher in accelerated capacity expansion. Focus on the recommendation of China's leading animal subunit vaccine enterprise Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) .
Feed sales benefit from the high scale of pig stock, and the increase of column pressure in winter remains unabated. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading feed enterprise Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) with outstanding advantages in product power and service power.
The price rise conduction superimposed weather disturbance, and the planting chain landscape continued. It is suggested to pay attention to the Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) target of grain price increase. Highlight the recommendation of transgenic technology with outstanding advantages Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ; And Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) where the fundamentals will improve; Related beneficiary objects Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Winall Hi-Tech Seed Co.Ltd(300087) , Syngenta (to be listed).
Market performance this week (2.7-2.11): Agriculture outperformed the market by 2.24 percentage points
This week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02% and the agricultural index rose 5.26%, outperforming the market by 2.24 percentage points. In terms of sub sectors, the livestock breeding sector led the rise, with an increase of 8.90%. In terms of individual stocks, Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (+ 31.56%), Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) (+ 21.79%) and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) (+ 21.63%) led the gains.
Price tracking this week (2.7-2.11): the price of white feather chicken this week, and the prices of aquatic products, corn, soybean meal and sugar increased
Pig breeding: according to the monitoring of Boya Hexun, on February 11, 2022, the average price of three yuan pigs abroad was 12.13 yuan / kg, down from -1.49 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of piglets was 23.88 yuan / kg, compared with -0.33 yuan / kg last Friday; The average price of white striped meat was 17.39 yuan / kg, down from - 4.40 yuan / kg last Friday. Today, the price ratio of pig feed is 3.34:1. According to wind data, on February 11, the average profit of self breeding head was -336.70 yuan / head, compared with -25.15 yuan / head; The average profit of purchased piglets is 2.44 yuan / head, with a month on month ratio of -5.33 yuan / head.
White feather broiler: according to wind data, the average price of chicken seedlings this week was 1.48 yuan / feather, a month on month increase of + 27.27%; The average price of wool chicken was 7.99 yuan / kg, a month on month increase of + 0.76%; The breeding profit of hairy chicken was 0.41 yuan / feather, with a month on month ratio of -0.04 yuan / feather.
Risk tip: the macro economy is down and the consumption remains depressed; Uncertainty of animal diseases in winter, etc.
