Zhou's view: the medium-term risks are gradually released, and attention is paid to the changes in the peripheral environment
(1) new energy vehicles: recently Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and other core growth stocks have been significantly adjusted, which is a sign of the short-term bottom, and the contradiction in the medium term has been gradually released. The general adjustment order of the new energy industry chain is: poor pattern links, high barrier second tier, high barrier core growth. The medium-term contradiction lies in the release of upstream production capacity and the re straightening out of the future growth environment. The contradiction is expected to gradually ease in March and the growth environment is expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year. We believe that the investment in the upward cycle of electric vehicles has entered the third stage and pay attention to investment opportunities in three directions: (a) core growth: the leaders with high barriers, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and other front-line leaders benefit, and the essential attribute of high barriers will lead to very high long-term concentration; (b) Post cycle: energy storage, hydrogen energy, charging and changing electricity, etc; (c) New technologies: flat wire, 4680 battery, etc., Gold Cup Electric Apparatus Co.Ltd(002533) and other companies benefit.
(2) photovoltaic: from the perspective of China, the price of components has increased, which still suppresses the demand to a certain extent; Globally, recently, photovoltaic policies in the United States, India and other places have been implemented for the first time, the short-term market has been suppressed to a certain extent, and the leading global technology leaders have benefited from long-term globalization. First, look at the United States, which decided to extend the tariff of 201 originally scheduled to expire in February 2022: (a) extend the tariff of imported photovoltaic cells for 4 years, but there is 5GW exemption every year, and reduce the tax rate of cells exceeding the exemption year by year in the fifth to eighth years; (b) Extend the tariff of imported photovoltaic modules for 4 years and reduce the tax rate year by year in the fifth to eighth years; (c) Double sided components have immunity. Next, look at India, which submitted the photovoltaic support plan, which mainly includes: (a) allocate US $2.602 billion to encourage India to build an industrial chain from polysilicon to components, and give 15% preferential tax rate to new enterprises in the first year; (b) From April, the tariff of imported photovoltaic modules will be raised to 40% and that of batteries to 25%; (c) Launch green bonds to support the development of clean energy. (3) we are optimistic about the reform of power station + market; (b) Global leading components, inverters and other terminal links with good competition pattern; (c) In the medium and long term, we are optimistic about the innovation of the industrial end (heterojunction, granular silicon, etc.) and the improvement of the market share of advantageous leading companies.
(3) wind power: the wind and scenery base is expected to exceed the expectation, and the short-term bidding is strengthened. Long term optimistic about offshore wind power + large-scale + core parts, Zhejiang Windey Co.Ltd(300772) , Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and other companies benefit.
Comments on 201 tariff extension of the United States: the implementation of policies is conducive to the leading leader of global technology
On February 4, the United States decided to extend the 201 tariff on imported batteries and components for four years, but raised the annual exemption to 5GW and maintained the exemption of double-sided components. After the implementation of the policy, greater certainty is expected to improve the prosperity of the industry and benefit global photovoltaic enterprises. The main beneficiaries are the leading component integration enterprises that have built factories in Southeast Asia, such as Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Jingke energy, Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) . In addition, affected by the rise of the overall prosperity of the industrial chain, other beneficiaries include: inverter enterprises, such as Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) ; Polysilicon enterprises, such as Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) , poly GCL energy.
Sector and company tracking
New energy vehicle industry: the R & D of high nickel battery products is accelerated, and the tax exemption policy of new energy vehicles is expected to be extended for the third time. New energy vehicle company: Panasonic will test produce 4680 batteries in 2022, Volvo will jointly build 50gw battery plant. Photovoltaic industry level: the United States will extend the tariff for 201 years, India will increase the tariff on cells and components. Photovoltaic company level: Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) plans to carry out technical transformation of single machine nine lines, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) integrated capacity expansion
Risk warning: the development of new technologies exceeds expectations, the demand is lower than expectations, and the competition in the new energy market is intensified
